气象因素及伊蚊幼虫对云南省登革热的影响与滞后效应研究

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2020.02.012

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2020, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 180-184.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2020.02.012

气象因素及伊蚊幼虫对云南省登革热的影响与滞后效应研究

唐烨榕¹, 杜龙飞¹, 王鑫², 万颉³, 张凤军², 丁海元³, 陈柯帆³, 马肖肖², 李春敏¹, 周红宁¹

1 云南省虫媒传染病防控关键技术创新团队(培育), 云南省虫媒传染病防控研究重点实验室, 面向南亚东南亚热带病国际科技人员教育培训基地, 云南省金宁一院士工作站, 云南省虫媒病毒研究中心, 云南省寄生虫病防治所, 云南普洱 665000;
2 中国科学院软件研究所, 北京 100190;
3 中科软科技股份有限公司, 北京 100086

收稿日期:2019-10-26 出版日期:2020-04-20 发布日期:2020-04-20
通讯作者: 周红宁,Email:zhouhn66@163.com
作者简介:唐烨榕,女,彝族,医师,主要从事寄生虫病和虫媒传染病预防控制工作,Email:tangyerong123@163.com
基金资助:
中国科学院重点部署项目（KFZD-SW-316）；云南省重大科技专项（2017ZF007）；国家自然科学基金（U1602223）

Impact and lag effect of meteorological factors and Aedes larvae on dengue epidemic in Yunnan province, China, 2017

TANG Ye-rong¹, DU Long-fei¹, WANG Xin², WAN Jie³, ZHANG Feng-jun², DING Hai-yuan³, CHEN Ke-fan³, MA Xiao-xiao², LI Chun-min¹, ZHOU Hong-ning¹

1 Innovative Team of Key Techniques for Vector Borne Disease Control and Prevention(Developing), Yunnan Provincial Center of Arborvirus Research, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Vector-borne Diseases Control and Research, Training Base of International Scientific Exchange and Education in Tropical Diseases for South and Southeast Asia, Academician Workstation of Professor Jin Ningyi, Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Pu′er 665000, Yunnan Province, China;
2 Institute of Software Chinese Academy of Sciences;
3 Sinosoft Company Limited

Received:2019-10-26 Online:2020-04-20 Published:2020-04-20
Supported by:
Supported by the Key Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KFZD-SW-316), Yunnan Science and Technology Projec (No. 2017ZF007) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U1602223)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析云南省登革热发病与伊蚊幼虫密度及气象因素的关系，对其滞后效应进行初步研究，为登革热监测预测预警提供依据。方法收集云南省2017年登革热病例、伊蚊密度监测数据及其气象因子数据，运用皮尔森检验方法分析登革热疫情与伊蚊密度和气象因素的相关性及滞后效应。结果云南省2017年登革热发病数与伊蚊密度、相对湿度、平均温度呈正相关关系，与降水量、平均风速呈负相关关系，均有统计学意义（R₁=0.190、R₂=0.012、R₃=0.009、R₄=-0.011、R₅=-0.030，均P<0.05），但与日照时长差异无统计学意义（R=0.000，P=0.440）。伊蚊密度与相对湿度、降水量、平均温度、发病数呈正相关关系，与日照时长、平均风速呈负相关关系，且均有统计学意义（R₁=0.196、R₂=0.134、R₃=0.214、R₄=0.190、R₅=-0.101、R₆=-0.189，均P<0.05）。伊蚊密度、相对湿度、平均温度和平均风速对登革热未来30 d的发病均有滞后作用，日照时长在第10天后对登革热传播存在滞后作用（均P<0.05）。结论气象因素通过影响伊蚊密度的变化而影响登革热疫情扩散和传播。及时掌握气象因素变化趋势，早期采取措施控制伊蚊密度是登革热防控的关键。蚊媒密度和关键气象因素对登革热发病期存在1个月以上的延迟作用。

关键词: 登革热, 伊蚊密度, 气象因素, 相关性, 滞后效应

Abstract: Objective To analyze the relationship of dengue epidemic with the density of Aedes larvae and meteorological factors in Yunnan province, China and preliminarily study the lag effects of Aedes density and meteorological factors, and to provide a basis for the monitoring, prediction, and early warning of dengue fever. Methods We collected the data on dengue cases, Aedes density, and meteorological factors in Yunnan province, 2017. The Pearson test was used to analyze the correlation of dengue epidemic with Aedes density and meteorological factors and the lag effects of Aedes density and meteorological factors. Results In Yunnan province, 2017, the number of dengue cases showed a significant positive correlation with Aedes density, relative humidity, and mean temperature, but a significant negative correlation with precipitation and mean wind speed (R₁=0.190, R₂=0.012, R₃=0.009, R₄=-0.011, R₅=-0.030, all P<0.05). However, no significant correlation was found between the number of dengue cases and sunshine duration (R=0.000, P=0.440). The density of Aedes mosquitoes was significantly positively correlated with relative humidity, precipitation, mean temperature, and the number of dengue cases, but significantly negatively correlated with sunshine duration and mean wind speed (R₁=0.196, R₂=0.134, R₃=0.214, R₄=0.190, R₅=-0.101, R₆=-0.189, all P<0.05). The density of Aedes mosquitoes, relative humidity, mean temperature, and mean wind speed all had a lag effect on the onset of dengue fever in the next 30 days, and sunshine duration had a lag effect on the transmission of dengue fever after the 10 th day (all P<0.05). Conclusion Meteorological factors exert an effect on the spread of dengue fever through the change in the density of Aedes mosquitoes. The key to dengue control is to grasp the changing trend of meteorological factors in time and take prophylactic measures for controlling Aedes density. Mosquito density and key meteorological factors have a lag effect on the onset of dengue fever for more than one month.

Key words: Dengue fever, Aedes density, Meteorological factor, Correlation, Lag effect

中图分类号:

唐烨榕, 杜龙飞, 王鑫, 万颉, 张凤军, 丁海元, 陈柯帆, 马肖肖, 李春敏, 周红宁. 气象因素及伊蚊幼虫对云南省登革热的影响与滞后效应研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2020, 31(2): 180-184.

TANG Ye-rong, DU Long-fei, WANG Xin, WAN Jie, ZHANG Feng-jun, DING Hai-yuan, CHEN Ke-fan, MA Xiao-xiao, LI Chun-min, ZHOU Hong-ning. Impact and lag effect of meteorological factors and Aedes larvae on dengue epidemic in Yunnan province, China, 2017[J]. Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2020, 31(2): 180-184.

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气象因素及伊蚊幼虫对云南省登革热的影响与滞后效应研究

Impact and lag effect of meteorological factors and Aedes larvae on dengue epidemic in Yunnan province, China, 2017

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