中国媒介生物学及控制杂志

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黄鼠鼠疫流行的预报研究

石杲; 秦丰程; 刘艳华; 李建华; 韩忠义   

  1. 内蒙古赤峰市卫生防疫站024000
  • 出版日期:2000-06-20 发布日期:2000-06-20

Study on the Forecast of Plague Epizootic of Spermophilus dauricus

Shi Gao; Qin Feng cheng; Liu Yanhua; et al   

  1. Health and Anti-Epidemic Station of Chifeng City, Inner Momgolia Chifeng 024000
  • Online:2000-06-20 Published:2000-06-20

摘要: 目的:探讨黄鼠鼠疫流行的预测方法。方法:采用逐步回归分析方法,分别建立当年和次年的预报模型。结果:流行强度可分4级,当年拟合率为93.33%,次年预报准确率达71.43%。结论:黄鼠鼠疫的流行与黄鼠体染蚤率和黄鼠洞干蚤指数有关,上述两因子适用于疫情的预测预报。

关键词: 鼠疫, 预报因子, 逐步回归分析

Abstract: Using the collected data of 1984-1998 in Inner Mongolia, multi-variate linear regression analysis is conducted to forecast the prevalence of epizootic plague in Spermophilus dauricus. Two primary factors and 2 mathematical models are given Y=0.8081-0.0190X3+0.8682X6(1), Y=1.4521-0.0333X3+1.0133X6(2). The epidemic intensities are obtaimed.