• 实验研究 •

### 基于泰勒幂法则的诱蚊灯抽样模型研究

1. 上海市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所, 上海 200336
• 收稿日期:2020-07-30 出版日期:2021-02-20 发布日期:2021-02-20
• 作者简介:周毅彬,男,副主任医师,主要从事病媒生物研究工作,E-mail:zhouyibin@scdc.sh.cn;朱江,男,主管医师,主要从事病媒生物防治研究工作,E-mail:zhujiang@scdc.sh.cn
• 基金资助:
上海市卫生健康委员会科研项目（201940350）

### A study of mosquito lamp sampling model based on Taylor's power law

1. Institute for Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases, Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
• Received:2020-07-30 Online:2021-02-20 Published:2021-02-20
• Supported by:
Supported by the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (No. 201904350)

Abstract: Objective To establish a mosquito lamp sampling model based on Taylor's power law. Methods From April to November 2019, a total of 229 surveillance points of carbon dioxide trapping lamps were set up in 15 districts of Shanghai, China during every period of ten days to monitor the densities of Culex pipiens pallens and Aedes albopictus. The data were used to fit the Taylor's power law function equation:s2=a×xb, which described the relationship between the mean and variance of the density of every mosquito species in each period of ten days. The results derived from the equation were substituted into the sample size formula to establish the sampling model:n=t2×a×xb-2×D-2. The number of sample units needed for Cx. pipiens pallens and Ae. albopictus density surveillance was calculated at the 95% confidence level according to the sampling model. Results The fitting results of Taylor's power equation were as follows:a=5.847 8, b=1.525 4, and R2=0.911 1 (P<0.001) for Cx. pipiens pallens; and a=3.668 2, b=1.302 6, and R2=0.962 0 (P<0.001) for Ae. albopictus. The fitting results were entered into the sampling model, along with the value of t distribution and the D value of relative precision. The D value at the 95% confidence level for Cx. pipiens pallens was <0.35 during the middle ten days of April and during the first ten days of May to the middle ten days of November, and was <0.25 during the last ten days of May to the last ten days of August. The D value for Ae. albopictus was between 0.25 and 0.35 from the first ten days of July to the first ten days of October and during the last ten days of October, and was >0.35 during other periods. Conclusion This sampling model has practical significance and can be used to estimate the optimal sample size for light trap monitoring. The current mosquito surveillance method by carbon dioxide trapping lamps in Shanghai shows higher relative precision for Cx. pipiens pallens than Ae. albopictus. The relative precision for Ae. albopictus can be improved by increasing the number of light traps.