气候变化对西藏革蜱在青藏高原地理分布的影响研究

王紫航, 白玛次旺, 李世豪, 付邦, 任佳荣, 刘小波, 梁莹

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2025.01.016

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 >

2025 , Vol. 36 >Issue 1: 86 - 93

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2025.01.016

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气候变化对西藏革蜱在青藏高原地理分布的影响研究

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1. 浙江中医药大学公共卫生学院, 浙江杭州 320053;
2. 西藏自治区疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 西藏拉萨 850000;
3. 山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院媒介生物控制学系, 山东济南 250012;
4. 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室, 传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室, 北京 102206;
5. 新疆病媒传染病重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830002

王紫航,男,在读硕士,主要从事媒介生物传染病风险评估预警,E-mail:Wzh3325672880@163.com;白玛次旺,男,副主任医师,主要从事传染病预防控制工作,E-mail:nc916@126.com。

收稿日期: 2024-09-02

网络出版日期: 2025-03-05

基金资助

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金（81703280）；公共卫生应急反应机制的运行-传染病防控（102393220020020000029）

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The effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of Dermacentor everestianus on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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1. School of Public Health, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 320053, China;
2. National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Xizang Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lhasa, Xizang 850000, China;
3. Department of Vector Control, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong 250012, China;
4. National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Department of Vector Biology and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;
5. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Vector-borne Infectious Diseases, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830002, China

Received date: 2024-09-02

Online published: 2025-03-05

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.81703280);Operation of public health emergency response mechanism-Infectious disease prevention and control (No. 102393220020020000029)

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摘要

目的了解青藏高原地区西藏革蜱的潜在地理分布,探究影响其潜在地理分布的主要因素,为西藏革蜱监测和相关蜱传疾病的预防控制提供科学依据。方法基于西藏革蜱分布位点、27种环境变量、当前时期1970－2000年与典型浓度路径（RCP）4.5情景下未来4个时期（2030s、2050s、2070s和2090s）的数据,利用MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS 10.8软件对西藏革蜱的青藏高原潜在地理分布进行预测预估与可视化展示。结果当前西藏革蜱主要分布于青海省西部、四川省西北部、西藏东部地区与西藏拉萨市周边区域,零星分布于西藏阿里地区,适生区面积占青藏高原总面积15.66%。影响其分布的主要因素为年平均温度、最干季节平均温度、人类足迹指数与海拔。未来时期,高适生区面积均有不同程度的减少,但总适生区面积均有增加。西藏革蜱在未来气候变化情景下呈现向西迁移的趋势。结论青藏高原大部分地区可能存在西藏革蜱,且受环境因素与人类活动因素影响,分布范围较广,潜在危害较大,尤其在人类活动密集且气温偏低的地区,西藏革蜱出现的概率更高。

关键词： 西藏革蜱; 青藏高原; 最大熵模型; 潜在地理分布; 预估

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王紫航, 白玛次旺, 李世豪, 付邦, 任佳荣, 刘小波, 梁莹 . 气候变化对西藏革蜱在青藏高原地理分布的影响研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2025 , 36(1) : 86 -93 . DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2025.01.016

Abstract

Objective To investigate the potential geographic distribution of Dermacentor everestianus in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region and explore the main factors influencing its potential geographic distribution, so as to provide a scientific basis for the tick surveillance and prevention and control of related tick-borne diseases in China. Methods Based on the distribution sites of D. everestianus, 27 environmental variables, and the data of current periods (1970-2000) and four future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used to predict, project, and visualize the potential geographic distribution of D. everestianus in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results Currently, D. everestianus is mainly distributed in western Qinghai Province, northwest Sichuan Province, eastern Xizang Autonomous Region, and surrounding areas of Lhasa City, with sporadic distribution in the Ngari Prefecture of Tibet. The suitable habitat area covers approximately 15.66% of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The main factors influencing the distribution include annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the driest season, human footprint index, and altitude. In future periods, the area of highly suitable habitats is expected to decrease to varying extents, while the total area of suitable habitats is projected to increase. Under future climate conditions, D. everestianus is expected to migrate westward. Conclusions D. everestianus may be present in most areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with a broad distribution wide due to the influence of environmental factors and human activities, and posing the greater potential harm. Especially in areas with dense human activities and low temperatures, the probability of the occurrence of D. everestianus is higher.

Key words： Dermacentor everestianus; Qinghai-TibetPlateau; Maximum entropy model; Potential geographic distribution; Projection

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