气象因素及伊蚊幼虫对云南省登革热的影响与滞后效应研究

唐烨榕, 杜龙飞, 王鑫, 万颉, 张凤军, 丁海元, 陈柯帆, 马肖肖, 李春敏, 周红宁

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2020.02.012

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 >

2020 , Vol. 31 >Issue 2: 180 - 184

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2020.02.012

论著

气象因素及伊蚊幼虫对云南省登革热的影响与滞后效应研究

展开

1 云南省虫媒传染病防控关键技术创新团队(培育), 云南省虫媒传染病防控研究重点实验室, 面向南亚东南亚热带病国际科技人员教育培训基地, 云南省金宁一院士工作站, 云南省虫媒病毒研究中心, 云南省寄生虫病防治所, 云南普洱 665000;
2 中国科学院软件研究所, 北京 100190;
3 中科软科技股份有限公司, 北京 100086

唐烨榕,女,彝族,医师,主要从事寄生虫病和虫媒传染病预防控制工作,Email:tangyerong123@163.com

收稿日期: 2019-10-26

网络出版日期: 2020-04-20

基金资助

中国科学院重点部署项目（KFZD-SW-316）；云南省重大科技专项（2017ZF007）；国家自然科学基金（U1602223）

收起

Impact and lag effect of meteorological factors and Aedes larvae on dengue epidemic in Yunnan province, China, 2017

Expand

1 Innovative Team of Key Techniques for Vector Borne Disease Control and Prevention(Developing), Yunnan Provincial Center of Arborvirus Research, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Vector-borne Diseases Control and Research, Training Base of International Scientific Exchange and Education in Tropical Diseases for South and Southeast Asia, Academician Workstation of Professor Jin Ningyi, Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Pu′er 665000, Yunnan Province, China;
2 Institute of Software Chinese Academy of Sciences;
3 Sinosoft Company Limited

Received date: 2019-10-26

Online published: 2020-04-20

Supported by

Supported by the Key Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KFZD-SW-316), Yunnan Science and Technology Projec (No. 2017ZF007) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U1602223)

Fold

摘要

目的分析云南省登革热发病与伊蚊幼虫密度及气象因素的关系，对其滞后效应进行初步研究，为登革热监测预测预警提供依据。方法收集云南省2017年登革热病例、伊蚊密度监测数据及其气象因子数据，运用皮尔森检验方法分析登革热疫情与伊蚊密度和气象因素的相关性及滞后效应。结果云南省2017年登革热发病数与伊蚊密度、相对湿度、平均温度呈正相关关系，与降水量、平均风速呈负相关关系，均有统计学意义（R₁=0.190、R₂=0.012、R₃=0.009、R₄=-0.011、R₅=-0.030，均P<0.05），但与日照时长差异无统计学意义（R=0.000，P=0.440）。伊蚊密度与相对湿度、降水量、平均温度、发病数呈正相关关系，与日照时长、平均风速呈负相关关系，且均有统计学意义（R₁=0.196、R₂=0.134、R₃=0.214、R₄=0.190、R₅=-0.101、R₆=-0.189，均P<0.05）。伊蚊密度、相对湿度、平均温度和平均风速对登革热未来30 d的发病均有滞后作用，日照时长在第10天后对登革热传播存在滞后作用（均P<0.05）。结论气象因素通过影响伊蚊密度的变化而影响登革热疫情扩散和传播。及时掌握气象因素变化趋势，早期采取措施控制伊蚊密度是登革热防控的关键。蚊媒密度和关键气象因素对登革热发病期存在1个月以上的延迟作用。

关键词： 登革热; 伊蚊密度; 气象因素; 相关性; 滞后效应

本文引用格式

唐烨榕, 杜龙飞, 王鑫, 万颉, 张凤军, 丁海元, 陈柯帆, 马肖肖, 李春敏, 周红宁 . 气象因素及伊蚊幼虫对云南省登革热的影响与滞后效应研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2020 , 31(2) : 180 -184 . DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2020.02.012

Abstract

Objective To analyze the relationship of dengue epidemic with the density of Aedes larvae and meteorological factors in Yunnan province, China and preliminarily study the lag effects of Aedes density and meteorological factors, and to provide a basis for the monitoring, prediction, and early warning of dengue fever. Methods We collected the data on dengue cases, Aedes density, and meteorological factors in Yunnan province, 2017. The Pearson test was used to analyze the correlation of dengue epidemic with Aedes density and meteorological factors and the lag effects of Aedes density and meteorological factors. Results In Yunnan province, 2017, the number of dengue cases showed a significant positive correlation with Aedes density, relative humidity, and mean temperature, but a significant negative correlation with precipitation and mean wind speed (R₁=0.190, R₂=0.012, R₃=0.009, R₄=-0.011, R₅=-0.030, all P<0.05). However, no significant correlation was found between the number of dengue cases and sunshine duration (R=0.000, P=0.440). The density of Aedes mosquitoes was significantly positively correlated with relative humidity, precipitation, mean temperature, and the number of dengue cases, but significantly negatively correlated with sunshine duration and mean wind speed (R₁=0.196, R₂=0.134, R₃=0.214, R₄=0.190, R₅=-0.101, R₆=-0.189, all P<0.05). The density of Aedes mosquitoes, relative humidity, mean temperature, and mean wind speed all had a lag effect on the onset of dengue fever in the next 30 days, and sunshine duration had a lag effect on the transmission of dengue fever after the 10 th day (all P<0.05). Conclusion Meteorological factors exert an effect on the spread of dengue fever through the change in the density of Aedes mosquitoes. The key to dengue control is to grasp the changing trend of meteorological factors in time and take prophylactic measures for controlling Aedes density. Mosquito density and key meteorological factors have a lag effect on the onset of dengue fever for more than one month.

Key words： Dengue fever; Aedes density; Meteorological factor; Correlation; Lag effect

参考文献

[1] 严菊英,卢亦愚,翁景清,等. 浙江省登革热暴发疫情的病原学和分子生物学研究[J]. 病毒学报,2006,22(5):339-344. DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-8721.2006.05.003. Yan JY,Lu YY,Weng JQ,et al. The etiological study of an dengue fever outbreak and the molecular characterization of the dengue virus isolates in Zhejiang province[J]. Chin J Virol,2006,22(5):339-344. DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-8721.2006. 05.003.
[2] 刘美辰,张淼. 世卫组织:登革热成蔓延最快的病媒传播疾病[J]. 疾病监测,2014,29(3):227. Liu MC,Zhang M. WHO:dengue fever has become the fastest spreading vector-borne disease[J]. Dis Surveill,2014,29(3):227.
[3] 刘颖. 基于气候因素的全球登革热分布的空间模型[J]. 环渤海经济瞭望,2017(10):123-126. DOI:10.16457/j.cnki.hbhjjlw.2017.10.088. Liu Y. Spatial model of global dengue fever distribution based on climate factors[J]. Econ Outlook Bohai Sea,2017(10):123-126. DOI:10.16457/j.cnki.hbhjjlw.2017.10.088.
[4] 张令要. 登革热媒介监测方法研究进展[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2010,21(6):631-634. Zhang LY. Advance in vector monitoring methods for dengue fever[J]. Chin J Vector Biol Control,2010,21(6):631-634.
[5] 王金娜,陆烨,郭颂,等. 气象因素影响登革热传播研究进展[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2014,25(6):594-596. DOI:10.11853/j.issn.1003.4692.2014.06.033. Wang JN,Lu Y,Guo S,et al. Research advances in impact of climatic factors on spread of dengue fever[J]. Chin J Vector Biol Control,2014,25(6):594-596. DOI:10.11853/j.issn.1003.4692. 2014.06.033.
[6] Schaffner F,Mathis A. Dengue and dengue vectors in the WHO European region:past,present,and scenarios for the future[J]. Lancet Infect Dis,2014,14(12):1271-1280. DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70834-5.
[7] 卫生部疾病预防控制局. 登革热防治手册[M]. 2版. 北京:人民卫生出版社,2008:1-4. Bureau of Disease Prevention and Control of Ministry of Health. Dengue fever control manual[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing:People's Medical Publishing House,2008:1-4.
[8] 姜进勇,郭晓芳,唐烨榕,等. 云南省2004-2014年输入性登革热病例监测与防控对策分析[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2016,27(1):5-8. DOI:10.11853/j.issn.1003.4692.2016. 01.002. Jiang JY,Guo XF,Tang YR,et al. Surveillance and control of imported dengue cases in Yunnan from 2004 to 2014[J]. Chin J Vector Biol Control,2016,27(1):5-8. DOI:10.11853/j.issn. 1003.4692.2016.01.002.
[9] 杨明东,姜进勇,郭晓芳,等. 2009-2014年云南省登革热流行病学调查与分析[J]. 中国病原生物学杂志,2015,10(8):738-742. DOI:10.13350/j.cjpb.150816. Yang MD,Jiang JY,Guo XF,et al. Epidemiological analysis and investigation of dengue fever in Yunnan province from 2009 to 2014[J]. J Pathogen Biol,2015,10(8):738-742. DOI:10.13350/j.cjpb.150816.
[10] 于德宪. 登革热监测方法的系列研究[D]. 广州:南方医科大学,2008. Yu DX. Studies of dengue fever surveillance method[D]. Guangzhou:Southern Medical University,2008.
[11] 龚震宇. 登革热和严重登革热简报[J]. 疾病监测,2012,27(7):588. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2012.7.025. Gong ZY. Dengue fever and severe dengue presentation[J]. Dis Surveill,2012,27(7):588. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961. 2012.7.025.
[12] 陈纯,郑红英,张周斌,等. 气象因素对广州市虫媒传染病发病影响研究[J]. 疾病监测,2016,31(12):984-988. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.12.004. Chen C,Zhang HY,Zhang ZB,et al. Influence of meteorological factors on arbo infectious diseases in Guangzhou[J]. Dis Surveill,2016,31(12):984-988. DOI:10.3784/j.issn.1003-9961.2016.12.004.
[13] 郭钜旋,张晓,刘青连,等. 广州市海珠区登革热发病与气象因素相关性研究[J]. 热带医学杂志,2017,17(8):1090-1092,1129. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3619.2017.08.026. Guo JX,Zhang X,Liu QL,et al. Correlation between dengue fever epidemic and climatic factors in Haizhu district of Guangzhou[J]. J Trop Med,2017,17(8):1090-1092,1129. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-3619.2017.08.026.
[14] 易彬樘,张治英,徐德忠,等. 气候因素对登革热媒介伊蚊密度影响的研究[J]. 中国公共卫生,2003,19(2):129-131. DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-0580.2003.02.001. Yi BT,Zhang ZY,Xu DZ,et al. Influence of climate factors on vector Aedes density of dengue[J]. Chin J Public Health,2003,19(2):129-131. DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-0580.2003.02.001.
[15] 甘立勤,王荀,马智超,等. 登革热发病与气象因素关系的研究[J]. 中国热带医学,2015,15(11):1333-1337. DOI:10. 13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2015.11.13. Gan LQ,Wang X,Ma ZC,et al. Correlation between climate factors and incidence of dengue fever[J]. China Trop Med,2015,15(11):1333-1337. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r. 2015.11.13.
[16] 董学书,蔡福昌,周红宁,等. 云南省边境口岸蚊类调查[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2004,15(2):142-145. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-4692.2004.02.022. Dong XS,Cai FC,Zhou HN,et al. Investigation on mosquito species at border ports in Yunnan province[J]. Chin J Vector Biol Control,2004,15(2):142-145. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-4692.2004.02.022.
[17] 王剑,谢吕,谢晓露,等. 中老边境地区江城县登革热媒介及病毒感染调查[J]. 中国人兽共患病学报,2016,32(9):843-849. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2694.2016.09.015. Wang J,Xie L,Xie XL,et al. Dengue vectors and the natural infection in border with Laos,Jiangcheng county,China[J]. Chin J Zoonoses,2016,32(9):843-849. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2694.2016.09.015.
[18] 杨捷,董朝良,江伟,等. 德宏州边境地区登革热流行状况调查及疫情处置效果[J]. 中国热带医学,2010,10(2):144-145,148. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2010.02.031. Yang J,Dong CL,Jiang W,et al. Survey of prevalence of dengue fever and management of infections in Dehong prefecture bordering Myanma[J]. China Trop Med,2010,10(2):144-145,148. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2010.02.031.
[19] 李华昌,杨贵荣,史爱军,等. 云南临沧市边境地区登革热传播媒介分布调查[J]. 中国热带医学,2015,15(2):186-188. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2015.02.019. Li HC,Yang GR,Shi AJ,et al. Investigation of distribution of dengue vectors in Lincang border area[J]. China Trop Med,2015,15(2):186-188. DOI:10.13604/j.cnki.46-1064/r.2015.02. 019.
[20] 李敏,曾卫明. 基于自适应区域增长的fMRI脑功能激活区检测[J]. 计算机应用与软件,2017,34(3):165-169. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-386x.2017.03.030. Li M,Zeng WM. Active region detection of brain function by fMRI based on self-adaptive region growing[J]. Comput Appl Softw,2017,34(3):165-169. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-386x. 2017.03.030.
[21] 陈业滨,李卫红,黄玉兴,等. 广州市登革热时空传播特征及影响因素[J]. 热带地理,2016,36(5):767-775. DOI:10. 13284/j.cnki.rddl.002881. Chen YB,Li WH,Huang YX,et al. Spatio-temporal spreading features and the influence factors of dengue fever in downtown Guangzhou[J]. Trop Geogr,2016,36(5):767-775. DOI:10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.002881.

Options

文章导航

模态框（Modal）标题

摘要

本文引用格式

Abstract

参考文献