目的 研究山东省干旱事件与人群传染病的关系，筛选干旱事件敏感性传染病。方法 选取山东省济南、青岛、潍坊和泰安市辖区以及日照市莒县和滨州市惠民县作为研究现场，采用生态趋势研究识别干旱相关敏感性传染病。采用Wilcoxon秩和检验对暴露期和对照期及滞后期传染病的发病率进行粗筛，选择负二项回归模型、零膨胀负二项回归模型和零膨胀Poisson回归模型拟合干旱与粗筛传染病发病的关系。结果 多因素回归模型结果显示，干旱导致阿米巴痢疾、风疹和流行性乙型脑炎（乙脑）发病风险增加，其OR值及其95% CI分别为2.457 （1.609～3.752）、2.206（1.436～3.388）和1.192（1.058～1.344），相应滞后期分别为3、0和1个月；而细菌性痢疾、手足口病、麻疹和恙虫病在干旱发生后其发病风险降低（OR < 1），相应滞后期分别为2、2、0和3个月。结论 山东省干旱相关敏感性传染病谱为细菌性痢疾、阿米巴痢疾、手足口病、麻疹、风疹、乙脑和恙虫病。
Objective To understand the relationship between infectious diseases and drought events and to screen the indicative infectious diseases associated with drought in Shandong province. Methods The drought-indicative infectious disease was identified by ecological trend study in Jinan, Qingdao, Weifang, Taian, Juxian, and Huimin county in Shandong province. The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare the morbidity of infectious diseases between exposure and reference periods. Then, the negative binomial regression model, the zero-expansion negative binomial regression model and the zero-expansion Poisson regression model were applied to fit the relationship between the morbidity of infectious diseases and drought. Results Multivariate analysis regression models showed that the risk of amebic dysentery, measles and Japanese encephalitis (JE) were increased after the drought (OR=2.457, 95%CI:1.609-3.752; OR=2.206, 95%CI:1.436-3.388; OR=1.192, 95%CI:1.058-1.344), and the lagged periods were 3, 0, 1 months. However, the risk of bacillary dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles and tsutsugamushi disease declined after the drought (OR<1), and the lagged periods were 2, 2, 0, 3 months. Conclusion Drought-associated infectious diseases in Shandong province were bacterial dysentery, amoebic dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles, rubella, JE, and tsutsugamushi disease.
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