长爪沙鼠鼠疫自然疫源地气候对鼠疫流行影响的非线性效应

许磊, 李贵昌, 司晓艳, 方喜业, 刘起勇

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2016.04.002

中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 >

2016 , Vol. 27 >Issue 4: 321 - 325

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2016.04.002

论著

长爪沙鼠鼠疫自然疫源地气候对鼠疫流行影响的非线性效应

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1 中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 北京 102206;
2 内蒙古地方病防治研究中心, 呼和浩特 010020;
3 中国医学科学院实验动物研究所, 协和医学院比较医学研究中心, 北京 100021

许磊,男,博士,主要从事鼠疫和登革热的生态学、传染病学研究,数理统计模型分析研究,Email:xulei@icdc.cn

收稿日期: 2016-05-05

网络出版日期: 2016-08-20

基金资助

国家自然科学基金面上项目（31370440）；中国博士后科学基金（2014M560105）

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Nonlinear effects of climate driven plague in Meriones unguiculatus natural foci in Inner Mongolia

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1 State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;
2 Inner Mongolia Center for Endemic Disease Control and Research;
3 Institute of Laboratory Animal Sciences of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Compared Medical Research Center of Peking Union Medical College

Received date: 2016-05-05

Online published: 2016-08-20

Supported by

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(General Program)(No. 31370440) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No. 2014M560105)

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摘要

目的分析我国内蒙古半干旱地区长爪沙鼠鼠疫疫源地的气候因子、植被对鼠疫宿主—媒介—病原系统的影响效应。方法采用广义可加模型对1980－2006年鼠疫监测数据进行分析。结果发现气温与降雨量对当地鼠疫宿主长爪沙鼠种群密度、媒介密度和鼠疫感染率存在显著的n 型非线性效应。鼠疫宿主密度与媒介密度呈显著负相关，但对鼠疫流行存在正效应。其中，当地降雨量显著影响鼠疫流行（F_3,25.66=16.22，P < 0.01）和鼠体蚤指数（F_2.28,25.31=8.73，P < 0.01）。上年气温显著影响鼠类种群密度（F_2.35,45.21=3.52，P < 0.05）和体蚤指数（F2.93,25.31=3.96，P < 0.01）。结论长爪沙鼠鼠疫自然疫源地内鼠疫流行风险随气候变化而明显上升。

关键词： 鼠疫; 非线性; 气候因子; 广义可加模型

本文引用格式

许磊, 李贵昌, 司晓艳, 方喜业, 刘起勇 . 长爪沙鼠鼠疫自然疫源地气候对鼠疫流行影响的非线性效应[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志, 2016 , 27(4) : 321 -325 . DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2016.04.002

Abstract

Objective Plague is a fatal disease caused by Yersinia pestis infection which historically shaped human society and is still present in the natural foci world - wide. The Mongolian gerbil(Meriones unguiculatus)is one of the most important plague host distributed across the Semi-arid grasslands in Northern China. We analyzed the effect of climate factors, including temperature and precipitation, and local vegetation on the plague dynamics of this host-vector-pathogen system. Methods We analyzed surveillance data from 1980 to 2006 covering the whole Meriones unguiculatus plague foci with a Generalized Additive Model. Results The model results indicated that temperature and precipitation exhibited significantly bell - shape effects on Meriones unguiculatus population density, vector density, and plague incidence. Rodent population density was significantly negatively associated with flea density, as well as with increased risk of plague incidence. Conclusion Risk of epidemics increase in plague foci maintained by gerbils in Inner Mongolia, upon the climate change effects.

Key words： Plague; Nonlinear; Climate factors; Generalized additive model

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