目的 探讨影响蚊虫密度的气象因素, 为蚊虫密度的预测提供理论依据。方法 收集2007年1月至2013年12月杭州、衢州、温州市的气象数据以及蚊虫密度监测数据。采用Pearson相关及逐步多元线性回归模型进行数据分析。结果 在杭州市, 平均水汽压(P=0.000, 95%CI:0.004～0.007)与蚊虫密度显著相关;在衢州市, 平均最低气温(P=0.000, 95%CI:0.027～0.055)、最大日降雨量(P=0.001, 95%CI:0.001～0.005)、极端最低本站气压(P=0.041, 95%CI:0.001～0.029)与蚊虫密度显著相关;在温州市, 平均本站气压(P=0.012, 95%CI:-0.029～-0.004)与蚊虫密度显著相关。杭州地区平均本站气压(P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.015～-0.007)、平均气温(P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.013～-0.004)对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性;衢州地区平均本站气压(P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.079～-0.034)、日照百分率(P=0.017, 95%CI:-0.111～-0.012)、平均水汽压(P=0.017, 95%CI:-0.050～-0.005)对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性。结论 平均水汽压、平均本站气压、平均最低气温、最大日降雨量、极端最低本站气压可能是影响蚊虫密度的气象因素。平均本站气压、平均气温、日照百分率以及平均水汽压等对蚊虫密度的影响有滞后性。

Objective To explore the relevant meteorological factors influencing mosquito density, and to provide theoretical basis for the prediction of mosquito density. Methods The data of meteorological factors and mosquito density were collected from January 2007 to December 2013 in Hangzhou, Quzhou and Wenzhou city, Zhejiang province, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis with stepwise were used to explore the influencing factors. Results The average vapor pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI: 0.004-0.007) is significantly associated with mosquito density in Hangzhou city; the average minimum temperature (P=0.000, 95%CI: 0.027-0.055), the maximum daily precipitation (P=0.001, 95%CI: 0.001-0.005) and the extreme minimum station barometric pressure (P=0.041, 95%CI: 0.001-0.029) are significantly associated with mosquito density in Quzhou city; the average station barometric pressure (P=0.012, 95%CI: -0.029- -0.004) is significantly associated with mosquito density in Wenzhou city. The average station barometric pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.015- -0.007) and the average temperature (P=0.000, 95%CI: -0.013-0.004) have a lagging effect on the mosquito density in Hangzhou city; the average station barometric pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI: -0.079- -0.034), percentage of sunshine (P=0.017, 95%CI:-0.111- -0.012) and the average vapor pressure (P=0.017, 95%CI: -0.050- -0.005) have a lagging effect on the mosquito density in Quzhou city. Conclusion The average vapor pressure, the average station barometric pressure, the average minimum temperature, the maximum daily precipitation and the extreme minimum station barometric pressure may be the main meteorological factors that affect mosquito density. The average station barometric pressure, the average temperature, percentage of sunshine, the average vapor pressure may have a lagging effect on the mosquito density.