目的 对青海省鼠疫监测数据进行分析,建立鼠疫监测综合评价模型,对青海省喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫疫源地国家级鼠疫监测点进行评估,为提高鼠疫监测能力和工作质量提供依据。方法 选择旱獭和其他小型鼠数量调查、鼠疫主要宿主动物旱獭体蚤和洞干蚤数量调查、鼠疫细菌学和血清学检测等反映鼠疫监测工作完成情况的指标共计25项综合评价指标,基于层次分析法(AHP)建立鼠疫监测综合评价模型,计算青海省4个国家级监测点鼠疫监测综合评分。结果 基于AHP模型的青海省喜马拉雅旱獭鼠疫自然疫源地4个国家级监测点综合评分依次为乌兰县(1.9286)、共和县(1.3174)、格尔木市(1.0692)和玉树州(0.9477)。结论 基于AHP的综合评价结果合理可靠,为促进鼠疫监测管理,提高监测能力提供了依据。

Objective To establish a comprehensive assessment model for plague surveillance for Qinghai province, China, and to evaluate the national-level surveillance stations in the natural focus of Himalayan marmot plague for improvement of performance and quality of plague surveillance. Methods A total of 25 comprehensive assessment indicators reflecting the surveillance quality were selected, which included the population survey of marmots and other small rodents, the flea index and burrow track fleas from the primary host of plague, marmots, and the plague bacteriological and serological measurements. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to establish a comprehensive assessment model for plague surveillance and to evaluate the plague surveillance in 4 national-level surveillance stations in the natural focus of Himalayan marmot plague in Qinghai. Results According to the scores obtained from the AHP model, the 4 national-level surveillance stations were in the order of Ulam county (1.9286), Gonghe county (1.3174), Golmud city (1.0692), and Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (0.9477). Conclusion The results of plague surveillance evaluation based on AHP are reasonable and reliable. It provides strong evidence for the management and improvement of plague surveillance.