目的 研究气象因素(组合)对白纹伊蚊密度的影响,及其在白纹伊蚊综合治理中的应用。方法 采用matlab多元逐步回归和神经网络研究上海地区2005年1月至2008年12月白纹伊蚊密度变化与气象因素间的关系。结果 多元逐步回归方程为y＝-18.206 64x2＋3.066 16x3－3.383 90x4＋1.891 53x7＋1.689 86x8＋25.939 46x13＋1.936 35x18－2217.100 90,其中x2代表最低气温,x3代表20-20降雨量(前一日20:00到次日20:00总降雨量),x4代表日照时数,x7代表最低相对湿度,x8代表日平均风速,x13代表20:00温度,x18代表08:00气压。回归方程获得较好的预测(拟合)结果,R?square为0.897 00,采用神经网络的方法R?square为0.913 19,在此应用场景下神经网络比回归分析具有更好的实际效果。结论 与蚊虫密度相关的气象因素主要为最低气温、20-20降雨量、日照时数、最低相对湿度、日平均风速、20:00温度和08:00气压。
Objective To study the relationship between the population density of Aedes albopictus and meteorological factors and its application in the control of Ae. albopictus. Methods The relationship between Ae. albopictus density and meteorological factors in Shanghai from January 2005 to December 2008 was studied using multiple stepwise regression and neural network on Matlab. Results The combination of meteorological factors (minimum temperature, 8 pm-8 pm precipitation, sunshine duration, minimum relative humidity, wind speed, 8 pm temperature, and 8 pm atmospheric pressure) had a satisfactory predictive ability, with R-square of 0.897 00. The multiple stepwise regression equation was y＝-18.206 64x2＋3.066 16x3－3.383 90x4＋1.891 53x7＋1.689 86x8＋25.939 46x13＋1.936 35x18－2217.100 90 . R-square in prediction with neural network was 0.913 19. Neural network showed a better predictive ability than regression analysis. Conclusion The main meteorological factors closely related to mosquito density are minimum temperature, 8 pm-8 pm precipitation, sunshine duration, minimum relative humidity, wind speed, 8 pm temperature, and 8 am atmospheric pressure.
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