目的 评估家蝇对溴氰菊酯抗性风险,预测抗性发展速率,为延长药剂使用寿命,更好地保护现有药剂的有效性,最大限度地发挥药剂潜在能力以及科学合理用药提供科学依据。方法 采用室内抗性选育和生物测定方法获得用于抗性风险评估的品系;采用Tabashnik方法估算抗性现实遗传力(h₂)并预测不同选择压力下抗性发展速率。结果 经过21代的室内选育,家蝇对溴氰菊酯的抗性倍数上升了2197.55倍;家蝇对溴氰菊酯的抗性h₂为0.1571,抗性风险较大;根据抗性发展规律(筛选前7代的抗性发展非常缓慢,从第8代开始迅速上升,筛选后期抗性发展基本稳定),计算不同阶段的h₂分别为0.1016(F₀～F₇)、0.2140(F₈～F₁₇)和0.0250(F₁₈～F₂₁)。根据不同阶段的h₂值(h₂=0.1016,h₂=0.2140,h₂=0.0250),预测不同选择压力下(死亡率分别为50%、60%、70%、80%和90%),抗性上升10倍所需的代数分别为7.2～15.9、4.9～10.8和44.4～98.1代。结论 家蝇对溴氰菊酯抗性风险较大,应根据防治对象的实际情况科学合理使用杀虫剂。

Objective To assess the risk of deltamethrin resistance development in Musca domestica and predict the rate of resistance development, and to provide a scientific basis for prolonging the service useful life of insecticides, protecting the effectiveness of existing insecticides, maximizing the potential of insecticides, and properly applying insecticides. Methods The resistant M. domestica strain for resistance risk assessment was obtained by lab resistance selection and bioassay. The resistance realized heritability (h₂) was estimated using Tabashnik method, and then the rates of resistance development under different selection pressures were predicted. Results The resistance ratio was increased to 2197.55-fold in the deltamethrin-resistant M. domestica strain after 21 consecutive generations of lab selection. The h₂ of M. domestica to deltamethrin was 0.1571, indicating a relatively high risk of resistance development. According to the general pattern of resistance development in M. domestica (the deltamethrin resistance development in M. domestica can be divided into three stages: the resistance development is very slow within the first seven generations, becomes fast from the 8th generation, and tends to level off in later generations). The h₂ values in three resistance development stages were 0.1016 (F₀-F₇), 0.2140 (F₈-F₁₇), and 0.0250 (F₁₈-F₂₁). According to the h₂ values in different stages, we predicted that 10-fold resistance increase required 7.2-15.9, 4.9-10.8, and 44.4-98.1 generations under different selection pressures (mortality rates: 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90%). Conclusion The risk of deltamethrin resistance development is relatively high among M. domestica, so attention should be paid to proper use of insecticides based on the situation of targeted pest.