中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 379-382.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2022.03.012

• 媒介生物传染病 • 上一篇    下一篇

甘肃省甘南藏族自治州2015-2020年肾综合征出血热时空聚集性分析

魏孔福1, 周伟忠2, 刘新凤1, 苟发香1, 张宏1   

  1. 1. 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
    2. 甘南藏族自治州疾病预防控制中心, 甘肃 甘南 747000
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-22 出版日期:2022-06-20 发布日期:2022-06-11
  • 通讯作者: 张宏,E-mail:gscdc@163.com
  • 作者简介:魏孔福,男,副主任技师,主要从事传染病防控工作,E-mail:weikf2006@126.com

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Gansu province, China, 2015-2020

WEI Kong-fu1, ZHOU Wei-zhong2, LIU Xin-feng1, GOU Fa-xiang1, ZHANG Hong1   

  1. 1. Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China;
    2. Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Gannan, Gansu 747000, China
  • Received:2021-12-22 Online:2022-06-20 Published:2022-06-11

摘要: 目的 了解甘南藏族自治州(甘南州)2015-2020年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病时空分布特征,掌握热点发病区域,为制定HFRS防控措施提供参考。方法 收集甘南州2015-2020年HFRS发病资料,在乡镇级层面计算空间自相关系数,探测空间热点区域,分析病例的时空聚集性规律。结果 甘南州2015-2020年HFRS疫情总体呈散发态势,年平均发病率为4.07/10万,2019年发病率最高,达12.50/10万。HFRS发病有春夏季(5-6月)和秋冬季(11月-次年1月)2个高峰,秋冬季峰略高。高发人群以30~75岁年龄段为主,男女性别比为1.57:1,职业以青壮年农、牧民为主,分别占17.14%和66.29%。甘南州2015-2020年发病存在空间相关性,热点区域为合作市的那吾镇和勒秀镇,夏河县的阿木去乎镇、牙利吉乡、博拉镇和扎油乡;时空聚集性分析探测到1个聚集区,半径为21.40 km范围,主要覆盖夏河县的阿木去乎镇、牙利吉乡、博拉乡、吉仓乡和扎油乡,聚集时间为2019-2020年(相对风险值为68.89,对数似然比为245.78,P<0.001)。结论 甘南州2015-2020年HFRS存在流行和聚集情况,夏河县“一镇四乡”是重点防控地区,应采取以健康教育为基础、疫苗接种为主、防鼠灭鼠并重的综合性防控措施。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 流行特征, 时空聚集

Abstract: Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and the hot-spot areas of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (Gannan prefecture), Gansu province, China from 2015 to 2020, and to provide a reference for the prevention and control of HFRS. Methods Data on the incidence of HFRS in Gannan prefecture from 2015 to 2020 were collected to calculate spatial autocorrelation coefficient, identify hot-spot areas, and analyze the spatiotemporal clustering pattern at the township level. Results The incidence of HFRS was generally sporadic in Gannan prefecture from 2015 to 2020. The mean annual incidence was 4.07/100 000, and the highest incidence was 12.50/100 000 in 2019. The incidence of HFRS had two peaks during May to June and November to next January, slightly higher in the latter peak period. HFRS was highly prevalent in the population aged 30 to 75 years. The cases were mostly young farmers (17.14%) and herdsmen (66.29%). The male-to-female ratio was 1.57:1. The incidence of HFRS showed spatial correlation in Gannan prefecture from 2015 to 2020. The hot-spot areas were Nawu and Lexiu towns in Hezuo city; and Amuquhu town, Yaliji township, Bola town, and Zhayou township in Xiahe county. The spatiotemporal clustering analysis identified a clustering region 21.40 km in radius, mainly covering Amuquhu town, Yaliji township, Bola township, Jicang township, and Zhayou township in Xiahe county, clustering during 2019 to 2020 (relative risk=68.89, log-likelihood ratio=245.78, P<0.001).Conclusion There were epidemics and clusters of HFRS in Gannan prefecture from 2015 to 2020. Authorities should adopt comprehensive prevention and control measures including health education, rodent control, and vaccination, with an emphasis on the five townships of Xiahe county.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Epidemiological characteristics, Spatiotemporal clustering

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