关键词: 鼠密度, 监测, 差分自回归移动平均模型

Abstract:

Objective To investigate the community composition of the rodents and their densities in different seasons and habitats in Changsha city, China, and to provide a scientific basis for rodent control measures. Methods Once in every month of each year, the night trapping method was used to monitor the rodent densities at randomly selected sites, one in special industry, one in natural village, and one in residential community. The statistical analysis was applied to gathered data, which was used to predict rodent density from 2016 to 2017 by autoregressive integrated moving average model. Results A total of 676 rodents were captured from 2006 to 2015, with a mean density of 1.06%. Of all the rodents, the predominant species was Rattus norvegicus, amounting 50.15% (339/676). The density of the rodent was the highest in the special industry followed by the natural village and residential community. The monthly seasonal fluctuations of the rodent mean density during a 10-year period showed the first peak in March and the second peak in June. The density was found decreasing with time during the study period. Conclusion Community composition and seasonal density fluctuation of the rodents in Changsha city were acquired. It is suggested to take integrated rodent control measures and enhance long-term monitoring, according to the habits and characteristics of the rodents and their seasonal density fluctuations.

Key words: Rodent density, Monitoring, Autoregressive integrated moving average model