关键词: 鼠密度, 肾综合征出血热, 相关, 回归

Abstract:

Objective To analyze the impact of rodent density on the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Zhejiang province, and to provide background for the prevention and control of the rodent-borne diseases. Methods The monitoring data of rodent density and the incidence of HFRS were collected from January 2005 to December 2014 in Zhejiang province. Spearman correlation analysis and linear regression method were applied for data analysis. Results The average density of rodents in the last decade was 0.88% in Zhejiang province, and the Rattus norvegicus was the predominant species which accounting for 51.16% of the total number. There was correlation with the rodent density and the incidence of HFRS lagging one month to four months, and the correlation coefficients were 0.247, 0.369, 0.328, and 0.213 respectively (P < 0.05). The linear regression found that the rodent density was significantly associated with the incidence of HFRS lagging one month to four months (R²=0.106, 0.167, 0.134, and 0.067, P < 0.05). Every 1% increase in the rodent density, followed by 0.326, 0.409, 0.367 and 0.258 (/100 000) increase in the HFRS incidence lagging one month to four months respectively. Conclusion Rodent density has certain influence on the incidence of HFRS in Zhejiang province. The density monitoring and rodent control should be carried out on a routine basis.

Key words: Rodent density, Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Correlation, Regression