关键词: 小毛足鼠, 种群数量, 预测预报

Abstract: Population dynamics of Phodopus roborovskii was investigated on ordos sandland by rectilinear trapping method in the middle ten days of April to October during 1991-1996. A total efforts of 124 245 trapping days was made and 7 498 rodents were captured in which 2 411 specimens were Phodopus roborovskii. Seasonal fluctuations of its population numbers were significant and existed significant difference among years. In general,there was only one peak and one valley which occurred in July and in May respectively in a year. The population dynamics among years has undergone a complete cyclical fluctuations consisting of 4 phases. The 4 phases were valley,increase,peak and decrease which occurred in 1991-1992,1992-1993,1993 and 1994 respectively. Another period started again from 1995,which was the valley phase. Prediction models were established with the index of capture rate for short-term models,reproduction index for middle-and long-term models.