关键词: 气象因素, 蚊虫密度, 相关性, 逐步回归

Abstract:

Objective To explore the relevant meteorological factors influencing mosquito density, and to provide theoretical basis for the prediction of mosquito density. Methods The data of meteorological factors and mosquito density were collected from January 2007 to December 2013 in Hangzhou, Quzhou and Wenzhou city, Zhejiang province, respectively. Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis with stepwise were used to explore the influencing factors. Results The average vapor pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI: 0.004-0.007) is significantly associated with mosquito density in Hangzhou city; the average minimum temperature (P=0.000, 95%CI: 0.027-0.055), the maximum daily precipitation (P=0.001, 95%CI: 0.001-0.005) and the extreme minimum station barometric pressure (P=0.041, 95%CI: 0.001-0.029) are significantly associated with mosquito density in Quzhou city; the average station barometric pressure (P=0.012, 95%CI: -0.029- -0.004) is significantly associated with mosquito density in Wenzhou city. The average station barometric pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI:-0.015- -0.007) and the average temperature (P=0.000, 95%CI: -0.013-0.004) have a lagging effect on the mosquito density in Hangzhou city; the average station barometric pressure (P=0.000, 95%CI: -0.079- -0.034), percentage of sunshine (P=0.017, 95%CI:-0.111- -0.012) and the average vapor pressure (P=0.017, 95%CI: -0.050- -0.005) have a lagging effect on the mosquito density in Quzhou city. Conclusion The average vapor pressure, the average station barometric pressure, the average minimum temperature, the maximum daily precipitation and the extreme minimum station barometric pressure may be the main meteorological factors that affect mosquito density. The average station barometric pressure, the average temperature, percentage of sunshine, the average vapor pressure may have a lagging effect on the mosquito density.

Key words: Meteorological factors, Mosquito density, Correlation, Stepwise regression