中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2013, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (2): 152-154,160.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国流行性乙型脑炎发病的聚类分析及其未来发病趋势预测

刘洁, 何钦成   

  1. 中国医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,辽宁沈阳 110001
  • 收稿日期:2012-12-13 出版日期:2013-04-20 发布日期:2013-04-20
  • 通讯作者: 何钦成

Hierarchical cluster analysis and incidence prediction of Japanese encephalitis in China

LIU Jie, HE Qin-cheng   

  1. Department of Statistics, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning Province, China
  • Received:2012-12-13 Online:2013-04-20 Published:2013-04-20

摘要: 目的 利用层次聚类分析法,对我国各省(直辖市、自治区)流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病进行综合评判分类,并对全国未来发病趋势进行预测,为降低乙脑发病提供理论依据.方法 收集全国各省1992-2011年乙脑发病率数据;采用Q型聚类分析对我国各省乙脑发病率进行综合评判分类,应用GM(1,1)模型对全国未来发病趋势进行预测.结果 聚类分析结果显示全国乙脑高发省份为贵州、重庆、云南、河南、四川、安徽、陕西等省(直辖市),其余省聚为一类,发病率较低;我国乙脑发病近年呈下降趋势,GM(1,1)模型预测得到乙脑发病的趋势与实际值基本一致,进一步预测2012-2014年乙脑的发病率分别为0.24/10万、0.22/10万、0.20/10万.结论 我国乙脑的未来发病仍呈下降趋势,乙脑发病存在明显的高发区,应对该地区进一步加强防控.

关键词: 聚类分析, GM(1,1)模型, 发病率, 流行性乙型脑炎

Abstract: Objective To classify the incidence rates of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in all the provincial-level regions of China by hierarchical cluster analysis and predict the future incidence of JE nationwide, and to provide a theoretical basis for reducing the incidence of JE. Methods The data on the incidence rates of JE in all the provincial-level regions of China from 1992 to 2011 were collected. Q cluster analysis was applied to classify the incidence rates of JE in all the provincial-level regions of China. The GM (1, 1) model was used to predict the future incidence of JE nationwide. Results The Q cluster analysis showed that Guizhou, Chongqing, Yunnan, Henan, Sichuan, Anhui, and Shaanxi were the regions with high incidence of JE, and other regions, which had relatively low incidence of JE, were classified as a group. In China, the incidence of JE decreased in recent years, and the incidence of JE predicted by the GM (1, 1) model was approximately in accordance with the actual incidence. According to the prediction results by the GM (1, 1) model, the incidence rates of JE would be 0.24/105, 0.22/105, and 0.20/105 from 2012 to 2014. Conclusion There will be a declining trend in the incidence of JE in China. Control measures should be enhanced in the regions with significantly higher incidence of JE.

Key words: Hierarchical cluster analysis, GM (1, 1) model, Incidence rate, Japanese encephalitis

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