关键词: 气象因子, 三带喙库蚊, 逐步回归, 相关性

Abstract:

Objective　To determine the correlation between the occurrence of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and meteorological factors.  Methods　Photocatalytic light traps were used to collect mosquitoes in Nanjing suburbs from August in 2006 to December in 2007. Multivariant stepwise regression was conducted using SPSS 16.0 with mosquito density (Y1), female mosquito density (Y2) as the dependent variables and synchronous meteorological factors, including mean temperature (X1), maximum temperature (X2), minimum temperature (X3), precipitation (X4), mean air pressure (X5), mean relative humidity (X6), mean wind velocity (X7) and sunshine hours (X8), as the independent variables.  Results　Cx. tritaeniorhynchus accounted for over 90% in Nanjing suburbs, and female mosquitoes 95%. High density (＞60 individuals per hour) was observed in the period from June to October. Significant linear correlation was present between X3 and the changing trend in mosquito densities, despite insignificant regression link. Most meterological factors were significantly nonlinear correlated with the density of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Favorable  results  were  obtained  via  the  following  regression  equations: Y1＝10∧［18.645 Lg（X1＋1）－21.403 Lg（X2＋1）－0.930 X7＋0.104 X8＋2.470］－1，Y2＝10∧［19.051 Lg （X1＋1）－21.994 Lg （X2＋1）－0.945 X7＋0.106 X8＋8.675］－1，R2＞0.8.  Conclusion　The occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus could be forecasted based on the concurrent meteorological factors. This prediction method could be applied to other vectors and relevant diseases.

Key words: Meteorological factors, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Stepwise regression, Correlation