关键词: 国际航行船舶, 外来媒介, logistic回归, 截获

Abstract:

【Abstract】　Objective 　To explore risk factors associated with introduction of exotic medical vectors by international navigation ships. Methods　A frequency?matched design of epidemiological study was applied in this study. A total of 170 vessels in which medical vectors were detected and 680 controls randomly selected among all of the vessels arriving at Ningbo port in 2007 were investigated, and vector risk factors were screen out by unconditioned logistic multivariate regression. Results　Six risk factors included: gross tonnage (OR＝0.711, 95%CI:0.497-1.016), arriving season (OR sp vs.wi＝3.413, OR su vs.wi＝3.328), cargoes varieties (OR＝3.541, 95%CI:1.495-8.383), vector?positive records (OR＝31.213, 95%CI:8.250-118.093), nationality of crews (OR＝0.402, 95%CI:0.173-0.938), issuance date of Deratting exemption certificate (OR＝1.372, 95%CI:1.117-1.684). Conclusion　Six risk factors were screened out by multivariate quantitative techniques, which would provide theoretic basis for the construction of Risk Assessment and Early Warning System.

Key words: International navigation ship, Exotic medical vectors, Logistic regression, Capture