中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2009, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 80-82.

• 技术方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

序贯抽样分析法在鼠类携带病原体水平监测中的应用

裘炯良1, 郑剑宁1, 蒋雯音2   

  1. 1 宁波出入境检验检疫局卫生检疫处(浙江 宁波 315012); 2 宁波天一职业技术学院
  • 收稿日期:2008-09-15 出版日期:2009-02-20 发布日期:2009-02-20
  • 作者简介:裘炯良(1975-),男,流行病学与卫生统计学硕士,主要从事卫生检疫工作与传染性流行病学研究。

The application of sequential sampling method on the monitoring of pathogens carried by rats

 QIU Jiong-Liang, ZHENG Jian-Ning, JIANG Wen-Yin   

  1. Ningbo Entry?Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315012, China
  • Received:2008-09-15 Online:2009-02-20 Published:2009-02-20

摘要:

  【摘要】 目的 为国内鼠类携带病原体水平监测提供一种监测手段和方法。方法 应用事先不规定总抽样个数,按照抽样者规定的检验标准,随着监测样本数的加入,用不断做统计学检验的原理,根据数学公式进行运算,并在监测图中绘制监测数据线,根据监测线是否触及上下界线,快速判断病原体携带率是否超出允许标准。结果 以某地区鼠类携带汉坦病毒(HV)的水平监测为例,设定鼠带病毒率警戒线为30%,应用序贯抽样分析法进行鼠带病毒率定期监测,当在监测图中描点描到第9只鼠的监测数据时,监测线穿过上界线。因此,根据该法判定:有95%把握认为该地区的鼠类携带HV水平达到或超过30%。结论 序贯抽样分析法用于鼠类携带病原体水平的监测可在一定程度上避免监测的盲目性,做到一旦获得结果即停止监测工作,避免了监测成本的浪费,可以用较为经济的监测样本量快速地得出可靠的结论。

关键词: 序贯抽样, 监测, 鼠类, 病原体

Abstract:

  【Abstract】 Objective To explore a new kind of technique and method for the monitoring of pathogens carried by rats. Methods According to the verification standard stipulated by sampler, use mathematic formula to count based on the statistics verification principle with the increase of surveillance samples. Draw the line of monitoring data on the graph. Distinguish quickly whether the carrying rate of pathogen exceeded the permission criteria or not, according to the relationship of monitoring line and up and down limitation.  Results Take the surveillance of Hantaan virus (HV) carried by rats as example, the guard-line of virus carried by rat was assumed to  be 30%. The virus carrying rate of rats was periodically monitored by sequential sampling method. If the monitoring line was above the up limitation, suggesting that the level of HV carried by about 95% rats reached or exceeded 30%. Conclusion The Sequential sampling method could make a relatively rapid and credible conclusion on the monitoring of pathogen carrier for its avoidance of blindness work and cost waste during the surveillance.

Key words: Sequential sampling, Monitoring, Rat, Pathogen

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