关键词: 家鼠型鼠疫, 发病率模式函数, 关联监测法, 平行监测法

Abstract: Objective To know deeply the incidence mechanism of commensal rodent plague and scientifically work out or choose appropriate surveillance and control measures.Methods The transmission route from rodents to humans of commensal rodent plague was expressed by mathematical language to show up the inherent relations among the decisive factors,and its relevant monitoring methods were analyzed and compared.Results(1)An incidence mode function of the plague was derived.(2) The linking surveillance method was more effective than the parallel surveillance method,and the former was more accordant with the epidemiology principles,the statistics requirements and the "benefit-cost ratio" requirement because of its smaller workload.Conclusion(1)The incidence mode function on commensal rodent plague disclosed the inherent relations among the decisive factors of the disease,and had the important guide function and wide application prospects to its prevention and control.(2)The linking surveillance method should be suited to the surveillance of plague compared to the parallel surveillance method.