关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 疫苗, Box－Jenkins模型, 疾病预测

Abstract: People infected with HFRS of high risk and people in high epidemic areas should be vaccinated with inactivated HFRS vaccine when based on surveillance of disease, future epidemic of HFRS could be evaluated and prevention efficacy of vaccine could be guided with datebase of confident morbidity forecasting. As forecasting of experiment proved well with Box-Jenkins model on morbidity of HFRS in Jiande County, its morbidity forecasting result was accurate and this model could apply to future morbidity forecasting. Box-Jenkins model was a rapid and accurate method for forecasting of HFRS epidemic and it could help to control HFRS epidemic. 