ISSN 1003-8280 CN 10-1522/R 中国疾病预防控制中心 主办
中国媒介生物学及控制杂志
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王信远1; 王福余2; 贾忠金2; 张纪文2
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Wang Xin-yuan*; Wang Fu-yu; Jia Zhong-jin; et al
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摘要: 预测春季农田害鼠发生程度。方法:运用微机,对影响春季农田害鼠发生程度的前期因子进行回归分析。结果:找出与发生程度相关性高的3个因子,即3月份捕获率、3月份雌鼠捕获率和上年12月上旬至当年2月上旬最大一次降水,然后用BASIC语言编写Fuzzy聚类程序进行运算,从而组建预测模型进行预测。结论:1994年预测值与实测值相吻合。
关键词: 模糊聚类, 农田害鼠, 预测模型
Abstract: The earlier stage factors of spring vole incidence were analysed with regression method.It was found that the three high related factors were capture rate in March, capture rate of female voles in March and the largest rainfall from the first ten days of the December to the first ten days of the next February.On the base above, the forecast model was made with the BASIC Fuzzy analysis program.In 1994, the calculated result from the moclel tallied with the fact.
王信远1; 王福余2; 贾忠金2; 张纪文2. 应用模糊聚类分析预测春季农田害鼠发生程度的研究[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志.
Wang Xin-yuan*; Wang Fu-yu; Jia Zhong-jin; et al. Vole Incidence Forecast with Fuzzy Analysis[J]. Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control.
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