关键词: 红带锥蝽, 气候情景, 适生区, 分布, 预估

Abstract: Objective To investigate the potential distribution of Triatoma rubrofasciata in China under different climatic scenarios,to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control planning of T. rubrofasciata. Methods ENMtool and ArcGIS 10.5 softwares were used to screen out the data of the global distribution sites of T. rubrofasciata; maxent 3.4.4 and R 3.6.0 softwares were used to screen out climatic variables based on the contribution rate of environmental variables, the jackknife method, and the correlation analysis of variables; R language was used to calculate the regularization multiplier and features for MaxEnt model, and the MaxEnt model was used to project the potential distribution of T. rubrofasciata in China under the historical scenario and different scenarios in future. Results A total of 73 distribution sites of T. rubrofasciata were screened out; in the MaxEnt model, training omission rate was highly consistent with projected omission rate, and the model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.990. Under the historical scenario, Southeast China was the potential distribution area of T. rubrofasciata; under the ssp126 and ssp370 scenarios in future, overall distribution area tended to decrease and slightly increase, respectively, but the highly suitable distribution area tended to increase. Conclusion With the change in climate, the potential distribution area of T. rubrofasciata in China may expand from Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Taiwan to Jiangxi, Hubei, Anhui, Hunan, Fujian, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Tibet, and the highly suitable distribution area of T. rubrofasciata may exist in northern Jiangxi. The study provided a theoretical basis for the prevention and control, surveillance, and early warning of T. rubrofasciata.

Key words: Triatoma rubrofasciata, Climatic scenarios, Suitable distribution area, Distribution, Projection