中国媒介生物学及控制杂志 ›› 2017, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 244-247.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2017.03.012

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SaTScan的浙江省2010-2014年肾综合征出血热疫情回顾性时空分析

张蓉, 孙继民, 凌锋, 蔡剑, 龚震宇   

  1. 浙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 杭州 310051
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-23 出版日期:2017-06-20 发布日期:2017-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 龚震宇,Email:zhygong@cdc.zj.cn
  • 作者简介:张蓉,女,医师,从事自然疫源性疾病研究,Email:rzhang@cdc.zj.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10004219)

Retrospective space-time scan (SaTScan) analysis on epidemic hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Zhejiang province from 2010 to 2014

ZHANG Rong, SUN Ji-min, LING Feng, CAI Jian, GONG Zhen-yu   

  1. Zhejiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, Zhejiang Province, China
  • Received:2016-12-23 Online:2017-06-20 Published:2017-06-20
  • Supported by:
    Supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No. 2012ZX10004219)

摘要: 目的 利用SaTScan软件对浙江省2010-2014年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)疫情进行回顾性时空分析,为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法 从中国CDC获取HFRS疫情数据和浙江省县级边界地图。利用描述性流行病学方法进行三间分布分析,采用SPSS 17.0软件进行统计学分析,SaTScan 9.1.1软件进行时空分析,通过ArcMap 10.2软件对结果进行可视化展示。结果 通过单纯空间分析发现1个一类聚集区(丽水地区),对数似然比值为85.16(P<0.01)、8个二类聚集区(衢州地区),均P<0.01;单纯时间聚集在2011年11-12月;时间-空间聚集探测到一类聚集区(丽水地区)和二类聚集区(衢州地区)各1个。结论 浙江省2010-2014年HFRS疫情相对平稳,但聚集区域(丽水、衢州地区)存在暴发风险,应采取综合防控措施控制疫情。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, SaTScan软件, 时空分析

Abstract: Objective To retrospectively analyze the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) epidemics using SaTScan software in Zhejiang province, 2010-2014, providing a scientific evidences for establishing further prevention and control measures. Methods The cases of HFRS and county boundary map were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The descriptive epidemiological method was used to conduct the three dimensional statistical analysis by SPSS 17.0 software, and the SaTScan 9.1.1 software was used to complete space-time scan. The results of exhibition were visualized using ArcMap 10.2 software. Results The pure spatial scan detected one primary cluster(Lishui), the log likelihood ratio was 85.16 (P<0.01); and 8 secondary clusters (Quzhou) (P<0.01). The pure time scan cluster was in 2014 (November-December). The space-time scan detected one primary cluster (Lishui) and one secondary cluster (Quzhou). Conclusion The epidemic of HFRS of Zhejiang province in 2010-2014 was relatively stable, but in some areas still had risk of outbreak. Prevention measures should be taken to control the epidemic situation.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, SaTScan software, Space-time scan

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