TANG Ye-rong, DU Long-fei, WANG Xin, WAN Jie, ZHANG Feng-jun, DING Hai-yuan, CHEN Ke-fan, MA Xiao-xiao, LI Chun-min, ZHOU Hong-ning
Objective To analyze the relationship of dengue epidemic with the density of Aedes larvae and meteorological factors in Yunnan province, China and preliminarily study the lag effects of Aedes density and meteorological factors, and to provide a basis for the monitoring, prediction, and early warning of dengue fever. Methods We collected the data on dengue cases, Aedes density, and meteorological factors in Yunnan province, 2017. The Pearson test was used to analyze the correlation of dengue epidemic with Aedes density and meteorological factors and the lag effects of Aedes density and meteorological factors. Results In Yunnan province, 2017, the number of dengue cases showed a significant positive correlation with Aedes density, relative humidity, and mean temperature, but a significant negative correlation with precipitation and mean wind speed (R1=0.190, R2=0.012, R3=0.009, R4=-0.011, R5=-0.030, all P<0.05). However, no significant correlation was found between the number of dengue cases and sunshine duration (R=0.000, P=0.440). The density of Aedes mosquitoes was significantly positively correlated with relative humidity, precipitation, mean temperature, and the number of dengue cases, but significantly negatively correlated with sunshine duration and mean wind speed (R1=0.196, R2=0.134, R3=0.214, R4=0.190, R5=-0.101, R6=-0.189, all P<0.05). The density of Aedes mosquitoes, relative humidity, mean temperature, and mean wind speed all had a lag effect on the onset of dengue fever in the next 30 days, and sunshine duration had a lag effect on the transmission of dengue fever after the 10 th day (all P<0.05). Conclusion Meteorological factors exert an effect on the spread of dengue fever through the change in the density of Aedes mosquitoes. The key to dengue control is to grasp the changing trend of meteorological factors in time and take prophylactic measures for controlling Aedes density. Mosquito density and key meteorological factors have a lag effect on the onset of dengue fever for more than one month.