Early Warning and Forecast
SUN Yuan-chao, LIU Kai, YAO Xiao-yan, CUN De-jiao, TIAN Na, ZHANG Yi, WANG Fei, LI Lan-hua
Objective To analyze the distribution of suitable habitats of Parafossarulus striatulus in China based on environmental factors, and to project the impact of climate changes on the distribution of P. striatulus in China. Methods The Chinese and English literatures related to the geographical distribution of P. striatulus in China were searched in the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, VIP, Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform, PubMed, and Web of Science, from which, the coordinate information of distribution points of P. striatulus was extracted, and the information of other distribution points of P. striatulus was obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) combined with the required climate and geographical factors. The MaxEnt was used to project the suitable habitats of P. striatulus in China in the future under different scenarios. Results Among the environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats of P. striatulus in China, the top four contributing factors were elevation (contribution rate, 51.42%), water index (contribution rate, 11.23%), precipitation in the wettest month (contribution rate, 8.71%), and precipitation in the driest month (contribution rate, 6.82%). Under the current climate conditions, P. striatulus was mainly distributed in the southeastern and northern regions of China, and the areas of highly and moderately suitable habitats were 373 700 km2 and 616 000 km2, respectively. Under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 126 scenario, the highly suitable habitats increased by 910 000 km2 and 938 200 km2 during 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080, respectively. Under the SSP245 scenario, the highly suitable habitats increased by 412 200 km2 and 494 400 km2 during 2041 to 2060 and 2061 to 2080, respectively. Conclusion Elevation is the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of P. striatulus. Under the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, future climate changes are expected to expand the suitable habitats of P. striatulus to varying degrees.