Early Warning and Forecast
DU Yu-zhuang, CUN De-jiao, YAO Xiao-yan, YANG Yi-tao, SHAO Li-jun, ZHANG Yi, TIAN Na, LI Lan-hua
Objective To analyze the environmental factors that affect the distribution of Bithynia fuchsiana and to project the distribution of B. fuchsiana in China in the current climate and climate in 2050. Methods Publications on B. fuchsiana from January 1, 2000 to July 15, 2021 were retrieved from CNKI, Wanfang Data, VIP Data, CBMdisc, PubMed, and Web of Science. Information about the distribution of B. fuchsiana in China and environmental factors was obtained. A maximum entropy model was used to analyze the influences of environmental factors on the distribution of B. fuchsiana and to project its suitable habitats in China. Results Among the environmental factors, elevation (30.30%), precipitation in the driest month (26.90%), mean monthly temperature range (12.40%) and normalized difference water index (12.20%) were the key factors affecting the distribution of B. fuchsiana. Currently, the suitable habitat area of B. fuchsiana was 2 442.30 thousand km2 in China, including highly suitable area (356.00 thousand km2), moderately suitable area (705.70 thousand km2) and marginally suitable area (1 380.60 thousand km2). The suitable habitats would expand to the north and increase by 450.50 thousand km2 under the representative concentration path (RCP) 4.5 emissions scenario in 2050. Conclusion Altitude is the main factor affecting the distribution of B. fuchsiana, and in the future climate change would expand the distribution of B. fuchsiana in China.