MaxEnt model-based analysis of distribution of suitable habitats of <i>Ornithodoros</i> ticks in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China

LIU Ming-ming, LIU Dan-dan, LU Xing, WANG Shui-yi, LIU Yu-tong, JIANG Bing-bing, ZHU Hui-ru, DU Shao-lei, Bayinchahan, ZHANG Wei

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.05.015

Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control >

2023 , Vol. 34 >Issue 5: 671 - 678

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.05.015

MaxEnt model-based analysis of distribution of suitable habitats of Ornithodoros ticks in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China

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1. Laboratory of Animal Parasitology, College of Animal Medicine, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830000, China

Received date: 2023-03-29

Online published: 2023-10-27

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 32060803); Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China (No. 2022D01A166)

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Abstract

Objective To study the distribution of suitable habitats of Ornithodoros ticks in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang),China under current and future climate scenarios.Methods The Ornithodoros distribution data in Xinjiang in 2002-2022 were obtained through field sampling and literature search. The obtained distribution data were sorted and plotted by ArcGIS 10.6 software. The climate data in Xinjiang in the past 30 years and future 80 years were obtained through the WorldClim 2.1 database. The main environmental variables were selected using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) jackknife test and Spearman correlation analysis. The selected Ornithodoros distribution data and environmental variables were used to construct a MaxEnt model for predicting and projecting the current and future potential suitable habitats of Ornithodoros in Xinjiang. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The relative effects of different environmental variables on the potential distribution of Ornithodoros were assessed using the MaxEnt jackknife test. The specific effects of environmental variables on the potential distribution of Ornithodoros were analyzed using the response curves derived from the MaxEnt model. The results were visualized and reclassified using ArcGIS 10.6 software to analyze the potential distribution of Ornithodoros and the suitable habitat area in Xinjiang under current and future (ssp245) climate scenarios.Results A total of 65 distribution data of Ornithodoros and six environmental variables were selected from 82 pieces of distribution data and 20 environmental variables through query and comparison. The AUC of the constructed MaxEnt model was 0.892,with good prediction accuracy. The jackknife test showed that the dominant climatic factors influencing the distribution of Ornithodoros were the minimum temperature in the coldest month and the precipitation in the driest season, with the contribution rates being 53.32% and 15.68%, respectively. The response curves showed that appropriate temperature and humidity would greatly increase the probability of occurrence of Ornithodoros. According to the model prediction map and reclassification results, under current climatic conditions, the suitable habitats of Ornithodoros in Xinjiang were mainly distributed around the Tarim Basin and the Turpan Basin; the areas of the most suitable habitats and highly suitable habitats were 84 900 km² and 119 900 km², respectively; the total area of the suitable habitats accounted for about 30.01% of the total area of Xinjiang. Under the ssp245 climate scenario, the most suitable area would increase to 93 700 km² in 2021-2040, and the highly suitable area would increase to 134 200 km² in 2081-2100.Conclusions Temperature is the most important factor influencing the distribution of Ornithodoros. The most suitable area and highly suitable area of Ornithodoros would increase under future climate scenarios.

Key words： Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region; Ornithodoros; Maximum entropy model; Suitable habitat; Climatic factor

Cite this article

LIU Ming-ming, LIU Dan-dan, LU Xing, WANG Shui-yi, LIU Yu-tong, JIANG Bing-bing, ZHU Hui-ru, DU Shao-lei, Bayinchahan, ZHANG Wei . MaxEnt model-based analysis of distribution of suitable habitats of Ornithodoros ticks in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2023 , 34(5) : 671 -678 . DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.05.015

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