Risk assessment of <i>Anopheles barbirostris</i> invasion responding to future climate change in China

LI Chao, YANG Hai-bo, LIANG Ying, WANG Guo-zheng, LI Yang, WANG Bin, LI Hong-yun, WANG Jun, LIU Qi-yong

doi:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.003

Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control >

2023 , Vol. 34 >Issue 2: 145 - 153

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.003

Important Invasive Alien Vectors and Pathogens

Risk assessment of Anopheles barbirostris invasion responding to future climate change in China

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1. Internet Hospital Management Office/Department of Public Health Management, Linyi People's Hospital, Linyi, Shandong 276000, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, Department of Vector Biology and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China

Received date: 2023-02-03

Online published: 2023-04-26

Supported by

National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2020YFC1200101);Shandong Provincial Medicine and Health Technology Development Program (No. 202103061021);Linyi Key R&D Program (Medical) Project (No. 2022YX0112)

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Abstract

Objective To assess the risk of Anopheles barbirostris invading China under future climate change scenarios, and to provide a basis for monitoring and early warning. Methods The maximum entropy model was used to predict the recent global potential distribution and project the future potential distribution of An. barbirostris in China. The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of An. barbirostris were analyzed based on the contribution rate of environmental factors. The vector risk assessment index system was established to calculate the comprehensive risk value of invasive species. Results A total of 99 effective distribution points of An. barbirostris were identified. The rainfall in September played a leading role in affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas of An. barbirostris. The omission rate of model training was roughly the same as the theoretical omission rate, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.988. Under the current climate scenario, the potential suitable areas of An. barbirostris in China were mainly in Guangdong province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Hainan province as well as the eastern Sichuan Basin. In 2081-2100, China has the largest potential suitable area (207.51×10⁴ km²) under the shared socioeconomic pathway 585 climate scenario, and the area of suitable area will show an increasing trend under various climate scenarios. Through the risk assessment index system, it was calculated that the comprehensive risk value of An. barbirostris was 0.57, so An. barbirostris belonged to the medium-risk invasive species. Conclusions An. barbirostris is a species with a medium invasion risk. In the future, the mosquito vector surveillance system should be improved according to the distribution of its suitable areas, and scientific prevention and control strategies should be formulated.

Key words： MaxEnt; Climate change; Potential suitable area; Invasion risk assessment; Anopheles barbirostris

Cite this article

LI Chao, YANG Hai-bo, LIANG Ying, WANG Guo-zheng, LI Yang, WANG Bin, LI Hong-yun, WANG Jun, LIU Qi-yong . Risk assessment of Anopheles barbirostris invasion responding to future climate change in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2023 , 34(2) : 145 -153 . DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.02.003

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