Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in China from 2006 to 2021, to investigate the influence of non-pharmaceutical intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on HFRS prevalence, and to provide a scientific basis for the subsequent formulation of relevant policies. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were utilized to statistically analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFRS in China from 2006 to 2021. The data of HFRS cases from 2006 to 2019 were used to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the number of HFRS cases in 2020-2021, and the predicted values were compared with the actual observed values. Results The number of HFRS cases in China was relatively stable in 2006-2021, and the number of deaths were significantly reduced. HFRS had obvious seasonality, with two peaks of incidence in a year, i.e., May-June and November. The number of cases in northeast China decreased, but the affected areas in the whole country expanded, and some areas were still at risk of outbreak. The number of male cases was significantly higher than that of female cases. The peak age group of onset was 35-49 years for males and 45-59 years for females, and there was a significant difference in the age composition between males and females (χ2=2 802.807, P<0.001). Farmers were the main affected population, accounting for more than half of the total cases. The seasonal ARIMA model was established by fitting the data of HFRS cases from 2006 to 2019 with R 4.0.4 software, which was (2,0,2)(1,1,0)12 and was well fitted. The actual observed value of HFRS cases in 2020-2021 was close to the predicted value, within its 95% confidence interval. Conclusion HFRS is an important public health problem in China and the overall trend of its prevalence is relatively stable. It is necessary to strengthen the surveillance and implement more accurate prevention and control measures. The measures for COVID-19 prevention and control in China have no significant impact on the prevalence of HFRS during 2020-2021.
Nan CHANG, Ruo-bing ZHOU, De-long MA, Lu ZHANG, Xiao-hui WEI, Jun WANG, Qi-yong LIU
. Influence of COVID-19 intervention on the epidemic of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2023
, 34(1)
: 58
-64
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DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2023.01.011
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