Objective To compare the effects of two common ecological niche models, maximum entropy (Maxent) and genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP), in prediction of the potential risk areas of epizootic plague. Methods Logistic regression was used to screen for climate and environment-related risk factors for the epizootic situation of Meriones unguiculatus. The Maxent and GARP models were independently used to predict the potential distribution of epizootic plague in M. unguiculatus. Results The following factors were screened out and significantly associated with epizootic plague in M. unguiculatus (P<0.05):elevation, seasonal variation in air temperature, the highest temperature in the hottest month, mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest quarter, precipitation of the hottest quarter, mean precipitation in February, mean precipitation in May, mean precipitation in August, and mean precipitation in September. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the training set and test set of the Maxent model were 0.989 and 0.987, respectively. AUCs for the training set and test set of the GARP model were 0.961 and 0.958, respectively. According to the Maxent model, the potential risk areas of epizootic plague accounted for 89.45% of the total area of the foci of M. unguiculatus plague, and the moderate-to-high risk areas accounted for 86.63% of the total area. The GARP model predicted that the potential and moderate-to-high risk areas accounted for 96.43% and 48.57% of the total area, respectively. Conclusion Both ecological niche models have good performance for accurately and reliably predicting the potential risk areas of the epizootic situation of M. unguiculatus plague. The Maxent model has more accurate prediction, while the GARP model predicts a larger spatial extent. Selection of predictive models can be made according to actual needs.
YAN Dong, LIU Guan-chun, HOU Zhi-lin, KANG Dong-mei, YANG Shun-lin, LAN Xiao-yu
. Using two ecological niche models to predict the potential risk of epizootic situation in the foci of Meriones unguiculatus plague[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2020
, 31(1)
: 12
-15
.
DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2020.01.003
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