Objective To establish a kinetic model for rat-to-rat and rat-to-human transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), to simulate HFRS epidemics in Shenyang, China, and to provide a basis for the prevention and control of HFRS. Methods The incidence rates of HFRS in humans, virus-carrying rates among rodents, and density of rodents in Shenyang from 1984 to 2017 were collected. To simulate HFRS epidemics, a susceptible-infected model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model were established for rat-to-rat and rat-to-human transmission, respectively. Results From 1984 to 2017, the mean annual incidence rate of HFRS was 3.88/100 000 in Shenyang. From 1984 to 2013, the mean annual density of rodents and virus-carrying rate among rodents were 6.93% and 4.79%, respectively, in Shenyang. Compared with the actual incidence rate of HFRS, the incidence rate predicted by differential equations had a mean absolute error of 0.28. The expansion of vaccination coverage could lead to a lower incidence rate. If the vaccination coverage was expanded from 40.00% to 50.00%, the mean incidence of HFRS in Shenyang from 2005 to 2017 would decrease from 1.97/100 000 to 1.91/100 000. Conclusion Differential equations can be used to simulate the transmission dynamics of HFRS in Shenyang. Vaccination is an effective way to prevent HFRS. Vaccination coverage should be expanded to protect people susceptible to HFRS.
PENG Cheng, HU Zhu-min, LI Yan-jun, GUAN Peng, HUANG De-sheng
. Epidemic simulation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shenyang, China: a kinetic study based on differential equations[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2019
, 30(5)
: 498
-501
.
DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2019.05.004
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