Original Reports

Detection of spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and prediction of incidence trend of human brucellosis in Hubei province, China

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  • 1 Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan 430079, Hubei Province, China;
    2 Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention;
    3 Hong′an County People's Hospital Huanggang City

Received date: 2019-04-10

  Online published: 2019-08-20

Supported by

Supported by the Program of Hubei Provincial Medical Leadership Talent Project and Hubei Provincial Health and Family Planning Commission Youth Talent Project (No. WJ2017Q028)

Abstract

Objective To explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of human brucellosis epidemic in Hubei province, China, and to predict the incidence trend. Methods The spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis epidemic in Hubei province from 2007 to 2017 was investigated by traditional epidemiology, spatial epidemiology, and time series analysis, combined with SaTScan 9.4, ArcGIS 10.0, and SPSS 18.0 softwares. Results From 2010 to 2017, there were five areas with spatial-temporal clustering of brucellosis incidence in Hubei province; all cases occurred in 2015-2017. There was one class Ⅰ cluster area covering eight counties (districts) with a maximum scanning radius of 105.94 km, which was mainly distributed in Suizhou, Xiangyang, and Jingmen; the clustering time was April to July, 2015, and 113 cases were reported. There were four class Ⅱ cluster areas, mainly distributed in five cities (prefectures), i.e., Huanggang, Huangshi, Xianning, Wuhan, and Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, and covering nine counties (districts) in the southeast and west of Hubei province. The simple seasonal model based on the exponential smoothing method had a good fitting effect, and the incidence of brucellosis in Hubei province from January to June, 2018 was predicted to be slightly lower than that in the same period in 2016-2017. Conclusion The epidemic situation of brucellosis in Hubei province has entered into a rapid "rising period" from the lower "plateau stage". The brucellosis epidemic has spread to a wider area, and the epidemic situation tends to be complex, with some areas showing spatial- temporal clustering. With the simple seasonal model fitting, the predictive model of brucellosis incidence trend in Hubei province has a high prediction accuracy, which can be used to strengthen surveillance and early warning, and promptly adjust and improve the prevention and control strategy of brucellosis.

Cite this article

LIU Hong-hui, XING Xue-sen, ZHAN Fa-xian, GUAN Xu-hua, LIU Tian, LIU Li, LIU Man, WU Yang, HUANG Dan-qin, LIU Hui-qin . Detection of spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and prediction of incidence trend of human brucellosis in Hubei province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2019 , 30(4) : 400 -403 . DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2019.04.010

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