Objective To explore the feasibility using information entropy formula to measure the epidemic intensity of enzootic plague. Methods The epidemic intensity formula named Ia for enzootic plague based on the information entropy formula was proposed, and used to calculate the epidemic intensity of hypothetical data in 8 epidemic foci (the number of township ≥ 8). The spearman correlation coefficient of the epidemic intensity between Yingjiang and Longchuan counties during 1982-2005 was calculated. Results The epidemic intensity of the hypothetical data showed that the epidemic intensity was the smallest (0.288) when 8 foci were concentrated in 1 townships, while the largest (2.079) when 8 townships each had 1 epidemic focus; with the same foci, the more townships involved in the epidemic, the greater the prevalence intensity. The largest epidemic intensity of Yingjiang (2.107) and Longchuan (1.642) were discovered in 1995 and 1990 respectively; the biggest epidemic intensity of Yingjiang appeared in 1995 (Ia=2.107), rather than in 1993 (Ia=1.885) with the most epidemic foci. The correlation coefficient of epidemic intensity in two counties was 0.301 (P=0.150), which showed that there was no statistical correlation. Conclusion The formula verified by simulated and actual data is proved to be able to describe the features of complexity and hierarchical structure of plague epidemic, and make possible the comparisons of epidemic intensity temporally and spatially.
GE Jun-qi, LI Jing-hui, MA Yong-kang, GONG Zheng-da
. The preliminary quantitative description of epidemic intensity in enzootic plague based on information entropy theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2018
, 29(5)
: 439
-441
.
DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2018.05.004
[1] 王彬. 熵与信息[M]. 西安:西北工业大学出版社,1994:123.
[2] 米景川,李仲来,吕卫东,等. 内蒙古北部荒漠草原沙鼠鼠疫流行强度的预报模型[J]. 中国地方病防治杂志,1997,12(2):109-112.
[3] 李仲来,李书宝,周方孝. 黄鼠鼠疫流行范围和强度与鼠蚤关系的研究[J]. 中国地方病防治杂志,1998,13(3):135-136,191.
[4] 杨春光,赵文红,董兴齐. 云南省家鼠鼠疫流行特征与强度分析[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2007,18(3):226-229. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-4692.2007.03.016.
[5] Shannon CE. The mathematical theory of communication. 1963[J]. MD Comput,1997,14(4):306-317. DOI:10.1002/j. 1538-7305.1948.tb00917.x.
[6] 张登兵,刘思峰. 熵与系统有序性研究综述[J]. 数学的实践与认识,2008,38(24):200-206.
[7] 李栋,龚正达. 云南省小型兽类区系与多样性的研究概况[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2011,22(1):89-93,97.
[8] 王启果,曹汉礼,孟卫卫,等. 准噶尔盆地鼠疫自然疫源地鼠体蚤类群落及其在动物鼠疫流行病学中的作用[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2013,24(1):11-16.
[9] 汤丽,张长国,邵宗体,等. 云南省玉龙鼠疫疫源地蚤类群落结构与物种多样性[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2017,28(3):201-204. DOI:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2017.03.002.
[10] 李贵昌,马永康,李镜辉,等. 1999-2004年云南省家鼠型鼠疫鼠间疫点发现方式调查[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2005,16(6):453-455. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-4692.2005. 06.016.
[11] 高少坤,史献明,杜国义. 河北省鼠疫自然疫源地动物鼠疫流行静息期探讨[J]. 中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2018,29(2):191-193. DOI:10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2018.02.020.
