Objective Exploring the influence of socioeconomic factors and environmental conditions on the spatial distribution of dengue fever epidemic is an important basis for effective prevention and control of dengue fever. Methods Predictive variables, included land use data, road density and population density, were involved in modeling within different buffer zone ranges from 0.5 km to 6.0 km, which were established and verified on 150 mosquito monitoring sites. The effects of social and economic factors on the distribution of dengue fever in Guangzhou area were analyzed. Results The results found that dengue fever was significantly correlated with human population density (R2=0.567), road density (R2=0.512), farmland area (R2=0.275), forest area (R2=0.106), and village area (R2=0.041)within the buffer zones of 6, 2, 1, 1, and 2 km. The land use regression (LUR)model with these five variables possessed satisfactory capability of predicting the spatial distribution of dengue fever with the adjusted R2 (0.648)and an appropriate F value 55.944 (P < 0.01). The overall result of the model is good with the fitting accuracy between the predicted value and the measured value (0.728 8). Conclusion The socioeconomic factors have different effects on the spatial distribution of dengue fever epidemics in different ranges. LUR has good ability to predict the spatial distribution of dengue fever and provide an effective method for local public health authorities to allocate precise preventing and control measures.
ZHENG Lan, LI Qiao-xuan, REN Hong-yan, SHI Run-he, BAI Kai-xu, LU Liang
. Exploring the relationship between dengue fever epidemics and social-environmental factors using land use regression model[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2018
, 29(3)
: 226
-230
.
DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2018.03.002
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