Objective To understand the relationship between infectious diseases and drought events and to screen the indicative infectious diseases associated with drought in Shandong province. Methods The drought-indicative infectious disease was identified by ecological trend study in Jinan, Qingdao, Weifang, Taian, Juxian, and Huimin county in Shandong province. The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare the morbidity of infectious diseases between exposure and reference periods. Then, the negative binomial regression model, the zero-expansion negative binomial regression model and the zero-expansion Poisson regression model were applied to fit the relationship between the morbidity of infectious diseases and drought. Results Multivariate analysis regression models showed that the risk of amebic dysentery, measles and Japanese encephalitis (JE) were increased after the drought (OR=2.457, 95%CI:1.609-3.752; OR=2.206, 95%CI:1.436-3.388; OR=1.192, 95%CI:1.058-1.344), and the lagged periods were 3, 0, 1 months. However, the risk of bacillary dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles and tsutsugamushi disease declined after the drought (OR<1), and the lagged periods were 2, 2, 0, 3 months. Conclusion Drought-associated infectious diseases in Shandong province were bacterial dysentery, amoebic dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, measles, rubella, JE, and tsutsugamushi disease.
XUE Xiao-jia, LI Xue-wen, LI Xiao-mei, DING Guo-yong, LIU Qi-yong
. Study on effects of drought events on infectious diseases in Shandong province[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2017
, 28(6)
: 538
-542
.
DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2017.06.006
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