ISSN 1003-8280 CN 10-1522/R 中国疾病预防控制中心 主办
Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control >
Nonlinear effects of climate driven plague in Meriones unguiculatus natural foci in Inner Mongolia
Received date: 2016-05-05
Online published: 2016-08-20
Supported by
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(General Program)(No. 31370440) and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No. 2014M560105)
Objective Plague is a fatal disease caused by Yersinia pestis infection which historically shaped human society and is still present in the natural foci world - wide. The Mongolian gerbil(Meriones unguiculatus)is one of the most important plague host distributed across the Semi-arid grasslands in Northern China. We analyzed the effect of climate factors, including temperature and precipitation, and local vegetation on the plague dynamics of this host-vector-pathogen system. Methods We analyzed surveillance data from 1980 to 2006 covering the whole Meriones unguiculatus plague foci with a Generalized Additive Model. Results The model results indicated that temperature and precipitation exhibited significantly bell - shape effects on Meriones unguiculatus population density, vector density, and plague incidence. Rodent population density was significantly negatively associated with flea density, as well as with increased risk of plague incidence. Conclusion Risk of epidemics increase in plague foci maintained by gerbils in Inner Mongolia, upon the climate change effects.
Key words： Plague; Nonlinear; Climate factors; Generalized additive model
XU Lei, LI Gui-chang, SI Xiao-yan, FANG Xi-ye, LIU Qi-yong . Nonlinear effects of climate driven plague in Meriones unguiculatus natural foci in Inner Mongolia[J]. Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control, 2016 , 27(4) : 321 -325 . DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2016.04.002
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