Abstract: Objective To present a method for forecasting popalation dynamics of Rattus rattoides in the Pearl River Delta. Methods Model of multiple seasonal,model of addition seasonal and ARIMA model were used to simulate the temporal variation dynamics of Rattus rattoides population and the corresponding model were established for the middle-term and long-term prediction. Results Model of multiple seasonal,model of addition seasonal and ARIMA model were satisfying to simulate the accumulation and disappearance tendency of Rattus rattoides population. Based on the models,the average errors of forecasting Rattus rattoides population were ( 6.43± 1.87 ),( 10.34± 2.56 ) and ( 11.48± 2.78 ),respectively,and the accuracy rate of the emergence grade forecast were 91.67 ,83.33 and 66.67 ,respectively. Conclusion Model of multiple seasonal and model of addition seasonal could be used to forecast the emergence dynamics of Rattus rattoides population with the predicted model of X(t)=5.158 393 29-0.015 772 24t)γ_T+t and X(t)= 5.181 308 46-0.008 617 24t+ d_T+t.

摘要： 目的 提出珠江三角洲黄毛鼠种群数量的预测方法。方法 采用季节交乘模型、季节叠加模型和差分自回归移动平均模型(ARI MA)分别拟合1998-2003年黄毛鼠种群数量的时序变化动态,建立相应的预测模型并进行中长期预测,比较不同预测模型的适用性。结果 季节交乘模型、季节叠加模型和ARI MA模型均能较好地拟合黄毛鼠种群的历史消长趋势,预测黄毛鼠发生数量的平均误差分别为(6.43±1.87)%、(10.34±2.56)%和(11.48±2.78)%,而预测黄毛鼠发生等级的准确率分别为91.67%、83.33%和66.67%。以季节交乘模型和季节叠加模型的预测结果较为准确,预测模型分别为X(t)=(5.15839329-0.01577224t)γ_T+t和X(t)=5.18130846-0.00861724t+d_T+t。结论 季节交乘模型和季节叠加模型适用于预测黄毛鼠种群的发生量及发生程度。

关键词: 黄毛鼠, 种群数量, 预测, 时序组合模型