Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control

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A Study on Predicting EHF Morbidity

Liu Guangzhong;et al   

  1. Jiang-su provincial Anti-epidemic and sanitation station,NanJing 210009
  • Online:1991-08-20 Published:1991-08-20

流行性出血热疫情预测预报研究

刘光中1; 金志宽1; 徐剑琨1; 吴扬生1; 戴胜利1; 朱凤才1; 王正顺2; 王庆奎3; 叶佩祥4; 邱祥鹏5   

  1. 1江苏省卫生防疫站 南京市210009; 2丹阳县卫生防疫站; 3东海县卫生防疫站; 4泰兴县卫生防疫站; 5沛县卫生防疫站

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Abstract: A mathematical formula for predicting EHF morbidity from Nov. to Feb. has been established by means of the density of A. agrarius carrying EHFV which was selected from more than 10 surverillance factors. Prospective verification shows that this formula is suitable for the EHF endemic areas with fall-winter Peak.

摘要： 作者通过筛选,建立了以黑线姬鼠带毒鼠密度预报11月至翌年2月流行性出血热(EHF)发病率的数学模型,并进行了前瞻性验证,认为该公式适用于具有秋冬峰的EHF疫区。

关键词: 流行性出血热, 疫情预测

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