Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control ›› 2019, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 506-509.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2019.05.006

• Original Reports • Previous Articles     Next Articles

An analysis of spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Baoji, Shaanxi province, China

LI Hong-bing, TIAN Hui, FU Hai-long, HE Wei, HU Xiao-qian, GAO Juan, YAN Chuan-yuan   

  1. Baoji Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baoji 721006, Shaanxi Province, China
  • Received:2019-03-10 Online:2019-10-20 Published:2019-10-20


李红兵, 田辉, 付海龙, 何微, 胡晓倩, 高娟, 严钏元   

  1. 宝鸡市疾病预防控制中心传染防制科, 陕西 宝鸡 721006
  • 通讯作者: 田辉,
  • 作者简介:李红兵,男,硕士,医师,主要从事传染病防控工作,

Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal clustering of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Baoji, Shaanxi province, China, from 1984 to 2017, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFRS. Methods A total of 12 599 HFRS cases were reported in Baoji during 1984-2017 with an annual incidence of 10.55/100 000. The incidence data of HFRS in Baoji from 1984 to 2017 were collected to establish a database. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analyses were performed using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Furthermore, a spatiotemporal scan analysis was conducted with SaTScan 9.0 software. Results The fatality rate of HFRS gradually decreased in Baoji and the high-incidence areas were changed continuously, which had a tendency to spread to the north. The global autocorrelation analysis demonstrated spatial clustering in 1994-1998 (Z=2.137, P=0.003) and 1999-2003 (Z=2.716, P=0.007), the hotspots in the high-value clustering areas were Meixian, Fufeng, and Qishan counties. Spatiotemporal scan analysis showed that a significant spatiotemporal clustering pattern of HFRS was observed in Baoji. Conclusion A significant spatiotemporal clustering pattern of HFRS is present in Baoji, and effective prevention and control measures should be developed in the areas with high risk of HFRS to prevent the spread of the disease.

Key words: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Geographic information system, Spatial autocorrelation analysis, Spatiotemporal clustering analysis

摘要: 目的 分析陕西省宝鸡市1984-2017年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)时空聚集性,为该病防控提供科学依据。方法 建立宝鸡市1984-2017年HFRS发病数据库,应用ArcGIS 10.1软件对HFRS疫情进行空间自相关及热点分析,应用SaTScan 9.0软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 1984-2017年宝鸡市累计报告HFRS病例12 599例,年平均发病率为10.55/10万,HFRS病死率逐渐下降,高发地区不断变化,近年出现向北扩散趋势,全局自相关性分析发现1994-1998年(Z=2.137,P=0.003)和1999-2003年(Z=2.716,P=0.007)只有空间聚集性,高值聚集区热点为眉县、扶风和岐山县,HFRS发病在一定的时间和空间上具有时空聚集性。结论 宝鸡市HFRS发病有明显的时空聚集性,应根据HFRS发病时空分布特点,制定相应的防治措施。

关键词: 肾综合征出血热, 地理信息系统, 空间自相关分析, 时空聚集性分析

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