%0 Journal Article %A LI Gui-chang %A LI Wen %A LIU Qi-yong %A LIU Xiao-bo %A LU Liang %A MA De-long %A MU Qun-zheng %A WANG Jun %A ZHANG Qin-feng %A ZHAO Jia-xin %T Epidemiological characteristics and risk prediction of scrub typhus in Guangdong province, China %D 2021 %R 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2021.03.015 %J Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control %P 334-338 %V 32 %N 3 %X

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trend of scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province, China from 2012 to 2018, to predict the incidence trend, and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the prevention and control measures of scrub typhus. Methods The data of scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2018 were collected. A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was used to establish a forecasting model, which was evaluated by comparing the observed and predicted values in 2019, and the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangdong province in 2020 was predicted using the model. Results A total of 33 490 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangdong province from 2012 to 2018, with the incidence increasing year by year, and the cases mainly occurred in June to October. The incidence was highest in the 50-60 years group; there were more cases in females than in males, and farmers (65.49%) were the dominant occupation. The ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was fitted with the monthly case data; the Bayesian information criterion was 879.36; the residual sequence was white noise sequence according to the Ljung-Box test, and the adjusted R2 value was 0.377. The fitting effect of the model was good. The actual value in 2019 was basically consistent with the predicted value with 95% confidence interval; the model had a good predictive effect. Conclusion The scrub typhus incidence shows an increasing trend year by year in Guangdong province. The main susceptible populations were people aged 50-60 years, females, and farmers. The ARIMA model can be used to predict the changes in scrub typhus cases in Guangdong province well, suggesting that the relevant departments should strengthen the publicity and education of key population and the epidemic prevention and control in the season with high incidence of scrub typhus.

%U http://www.bmsw.net.cn/EN/10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2021.03.015