Chines Journal of Vector Biology and Control ›› 2018, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 594-597.DOI: 10.11853/j.issn.1003.8280.2018.06.010

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Risk assessment indicator system for cross-border imported dengue fever in Yunnan border area

HUANG Tian1, JIANG Li2, LI Qiong-fen1, ZHENG Er-da1, ZHENG Yan1, HE Ji-bo1   

  1. 1 Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, Yunnan Province, China;
    2 The First Affiliated Hospital of Guiyang University of Chinese Medicine
  • Received:2018-07-17 Online:2018-12-20 Published:2018-12-20

云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入传播风险评估指标体系的构建

黄甜1, 蒋立2, 李琼芬1, 郑尔达1, 郑艳1, 何继波1   

  1. 1 云南省疾病预防控制中心疫情监测/突发公共卫生事件处置中心, 昆明 650022;
    2 贵阳中医学院第一附属医院, 贵阳 550001
  • 通讯作者: 何继波,Email:ynhejibo@163.com
  • 作者简介:黄甜,女,硕士,主管医师,主要从事传染病流行病学,Email:99600694@qq.com;蒋立,男,博士,主管技师,主要从事病毒检测工作,Email:674415753@qq.com

Abstract: Objective To establish a risk assessment indicator system for cross-border imported dengue fever in Yunnan province, and to provide scientific evidence and reference for the prevention and control of cross border transmission of dengue fever. Methods Qualitative and quantitative research combining the first literature retrieval research, group discussion and expert consultation tentatively set the original indicator system framework, and then through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Delphi method constructed the risk assessment indicator and its weight. Results The positive coefficient of the 2-round of expert consultation was 100%; the average expert authority indices were 0.836 1±0.074 3、0.861 1±0.055 7; the mean coefficient of variation was 0.297 3±0.169 7, 0.158 6±0.052 3; expert opinion coordination coefficient was 0.678 (χ2=573.694, P<0.05) and 0.691 (χ2=577.390, P<0.05). After two rounds of expert consultation, the risk assessment indicator system for imported dengue fever in the border areas of Yunnan province was established, including 4 of first level indicators, 10 of two level indicators and 41 of three level indicators. Conclusion Preliminary establishment of the risk assessment indicator system for cross-border imported dengue fever in the border areas of Yunnan. The indicator system provides a reference for carrying out risk assessment of dengue transmission, and provided a scientific basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in border areas.

Key words: Dengue fever, Cross-border imported, Risk assessment, Indicator system

摘要: 目的 构建云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入风险评估指标体系,为该病跨境输入传播的预防控制提供科学依据和参考。方法 采用定性和定量研究相结合的方法,首先运用文献检索、小组讨论及专家汇商法初步拟定初始指标体系框架,然后通过层次分析法和德尔菲法构建风险评估指标及其权重。结果 两轮专家咨询的积极系数均为100%;专家权威系数的均数分别为0.836 1±0.074 3、0.861 1±0.055 7,变异系数均数分别为0.297 3±0.169 7和0.158 6±0.052 3;专家意见协调系数分别为0.678(χ2=573.694,P<0.05)和0.691(χ2=577.390,P<0.05)。经过2轮专家咨询,最终建立了包含4个一级指标,10个二级指标和41个三级指标的云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入风险评估指标体系。结论 初步构建了云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入风险评估指标体系,为该病的跨境输入传播风险评估和边境地区的风险管理提供了参考依据。

关键词: 登革热, 跨境输入, 风险评估, 指标体系

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