Objective To establish a risk assessment system for lymphatic filaria invasion in China, and to offer scientific evidence for the risk assessment and prevention and control of lymphatic filaria invasion in China. Methods Based on data on climate factors, population density, altitude, and the distribution of filarial vector mosquitoes downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, a MaxEnt model was used to project the potential distribution of vector mosquitoes in China under different future climate scenarios. Through literature review and expert consultation, assessment indicators and assignment criteria were determined to construct a risk assessment system for evaluating the risk level of lymphatic filaria invasion in China. Results Through literature review and two rounds of expert consultation, three primary indicators and 16 secondary indicators were included in the lymphatic filaria invasion risk assessment system. There were six indicators for import risk (scored 0-4), six indicators for transmission risk (scored 0-4), and four indicators for consequence risk (scored 0-2). A pooled risk score of 0-3 was defined as low risk, 4-6 as medium risk, 7-8 as high risk, and 9-10 as extremely high risk. The Kendall’s coefficients of concordance for the first and second rounds of expert consultation were 0.713 and 0.825, respectively, indicating a good level of agreement. According to suitable habitat prediction, its vectors Anopheles sinensis, Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus, and An. barbirostris had broad distributions with increasing trends in China. The risk levels of Wuchereria bancrofti, Brugia malayi, and B. timori invasions in China were medium, medium, and low, respectively. Conclusions A lymphatic filaria invasion risk assessment system is established for the first time, which provides a basis for post-elimination risk assessment of lymphatic filaria invasion and control of key risk factors.
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